The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Master Key

Master Key

Rules

Three prizes are shown, usually a car and two smaller prizes. Each prize has a lock associated with it. Five keys are then shown. One of those keys opens the lock to the car, one opens the lock to the middle prize, one opens the lock to the cheap prize, one opens all the locks (the "master key"), and one opens none of the locks. To win keys, the contestant must guess small price prizes correctly. Two small prizes are shown; the contestant must guess the correct price of each prize to win a key.

Random fact

On April 15, 2019, I...errr, the contestant who played Master Key found both the car key and the master key. That hadn't happened since November 4, 2009, almost 10 years earlier. You can see my...errr, the April 15, 2019 playing here:

(Jump ahead to the 40:00 mark to see the Master Key playing.)

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-46): 58-88 (39.73%)
• What it would be by random chance: 3/8 (37.5%)

<voice from offstage> Hey! The win rate is just barely better than random chance?! Really? Are the small prizes that hard to guess the price of?

Oh, you again. No, the small prizes aren't that hard to guess the price of. Contestants are just too predictable, and the producers take advantage of that. Read on...

For the small prizes, the correct price was...(seasons 40-47)

• The cheaper price: 65 prizes (52.42%)
• The more expensive price: 59 prizes (51.94%)
  
• The price on the left: 38 prizes (30.65%)
• The price on the right: 86 prizes (69.35%)

The contestant chose which key? (seasons 40-47)

• Key #1 (the left-most key): 10 playings (17.24%)
• Key #2: 16 playings (27.59%)
• Key #3: 16 playings (27.59%)
• Key #4: 18 playings (31.03%)
• Key #5 (the right-most key): 12 playings (20.69%)
  Note: the above percentages add up to more than 100% due to the possibility of winning 2 keys.

Which key went to which lock? (seasons 40-47)

          Cheap Middle Car Master

Key  Dud  Prize Prize  Key  Key  

 1    2     2     0     2    4

 2    7     1     3     5    0

 3    1     7     6     1    1

 4    5     8     2     2    1

 5    2     1     3     1    5

Strategy

Part 1: Small prize pricing. 

Mostly it's know the prices, but if you're not sure, the price on the right is correct twice as often as the price on the left.

Part 2: Which keys to pick. 

PICK THE ENDPOINTS!! This game practically defines the strategy. The left-most and right-most keys are picked less frequently than the middle keys, and thus the producers put the master key at the end more often than anywhere else. (And yes, that's why this game is won barely more often than random chance would state--it's not that contestants can't price the small prizes, it's that their key choosing behavior is too predictable.) As for which key to pick first, I'd go far right and then far left, but then that was just me 😂.

The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Make Your Move

Make Your Move

Season 48 edit

There's an update for season 48, and it doesn't make the game any easier. They used a $470 prize in the game on November 18, 2019, so the advice about making sure you select a price above $500 for the three digit prize is no longer accurate. The rest still applies. The original unedited post is below...

Rules

Three prizes are shown: one with four digits in its price, one with three digits in its price, and one with two digits in its price. Nine numbers in a line are also shown. The contestant must decide which four of those numbers belong to the price of the four digit prize, which three numbers belong to the price of the three digit prize, and which two digits belong to the price of the two digit prize. Every number in the line must be used exactly once. If the contestant decides correctly, they win all three prizes.

Random Fact

This game is usually easy for contestants to understand, but not always:

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-46): 83-110 (43.01%)
• What it would be by random chance: 1/6 (16.67%)

Number of times the correct solution was... (seasons 43-47)

• [XX][YYY][ZZZZ]: 2 playings (4.17%)
• [XX][ZZZZ][YYY]: 12 playings (25.00%)
• [YYY][XX][ZZZZ]: 6 playings (12.50%)
• [YYY][ZZZZ][XX]: 8 playings (16.67%)
• [ZZZZ][XX][YYY]: 13 playings (25.00%)
• [ZZZZ][YYY][XX]: 7 playings (14.58%)

Range of values for each prize (seasons 43-47)

• Two digit prize: $18-$95
• Three digit prize: $508-$995
• Four digit prize: $5,129-$9,931

Strategy

Mostly know the prices, but the following tips can help you:

1. As you can see, the three digit prize and the four digit prize always have a price that starts with 5 or greater. So any solution that violates this rule should be discarded immediately.
2. As a corollary to the first point, if the first number in the row is 4 or less, it means the first two digits are the price of the two digit prize.
3. They very rarely have the [XX][YYY][ZZZZ] solution. So be sure of the prices before you choose that ordering--if you have any doubt at all, go for something else. In fact, be sure before you choose the last four digits in the row as the price of the four digit prize, no matter which ordering of the first two prizes you choose.
4. If you see a "99" anywhere in the row, it's very likely not the ending of any of the prizes. From seasons 43 to 47, only 3 of the 48 four digit prizes have ended in -99 and none of the two digit prizes has ended in -99.

The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Magic #

Magic #

Rules

Two prizes are shown as is a screen with a price the contestant can set. The contestant must set that price so that it is between the prices of the two prizes to win.

Random fact

The prop used in this game once took on a life of its own:

Win-loss record (seasons 32-46): 65-67 (49.24%)
Note Magic # was introduced in season 32.

Number of losses that were caused by...

• Setting the magic number too low: 66 (98.51% of all losses)
• Setting the magic number too high: 1 (1.49% of all losses)

Range of values for each prize (seasons 42-47)

• The cheaper prize: $1,199-$2,970
• The more expensive prize: $3,295-$8,990

Strategy

Set the magic number to $3,000. Yes, the audience will boo you after you get above about $1,500, and you'll probably start to feel like it just shouldn't take that long, but you must ignore both things. After all, only 1 person has set the magic number too high in the history of this game. A magic number of $3,000 has won this game in every playing since the start of season 42 and I highly doubt they're going to start having the higher price prize be under $3,000 any time soon--that would be extremely cheap. In fact, they haven't used a higher-priced prize under $4,000 since the middle of season 43. Thus, if anything, it wouldn't surprise me if you need to set the magic number higher than $3,000 to win at some point in the future, but you certainly won't be over if you set the number to $3,000.

The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Lucky $even

Lucky $even

Rules

A car is shown as is the first digit of the car's price. The contestant is given $7; they must have $1 left at the end of the game to "buy" the car. Starting with the second digit, the contestant guesses each digit of the car's price; they give up $1 per digit they are off. If they have at least $1 after guessing all four digits, they win the car.

Random fact

I never thought I'd see this game played perfectly, but it happened not too long ago:

(Jump ahead to the 4:00 mark to see the Lucky $even playing.)

Win-loss record (seasons 29-46): 152-365 (29.40%)

# of times each digit had each value (seasons 40-46):

All cars:

              Digit of car

Number  2nd    3rd     4th    5th           Overall

  1    16.98%  6.60%  3.77%  3.77%            7.78%

  2     9.91% 16.04% 11.32% 13.68%           12.74%

  3     8.02% 11.79% 10.85% 11.32%           10.50%

  4     7.55%  8.96%  8.02%  8.96%            8.37%

  5     2.83%  5.19%  5.19% 12.26%            6.37%

  6     8.96% 10.38%  7.08%  3.30%            7.43%

  7    11.79%  8.96% 11.79%  6.60%            9.79%

  8    14.15% 18.39% 16.04% 11.32%           14.98%

  9    19.81% 13.68% 25.00% 25.47%           20.99%

 NR*    0.00%  0.00%  0.94%  3.30%            1.06%

*Not revealed

First digit of the car is 1:

              Digit of car

Number  2nd    3rd     4th    5th           Overall

  1     0.00%  6.36%  5.45%  0.00%            2.96%

  2     0.00% 15.45% 13.64% 20.00%           12.27%

  3     0.00% 10.00%  9.09% 10.00%            7.27%

  4     1.82%  5.45%  6.36% 10.91%            6.14%

  5     1.82%  5.45%  5.45% 13.64%            6.59%

  6    11.82% 13.64%  8.18%  2.73%            9.09%

  7    20.00%  9.09% 10.00%  5.45%           11.14%

  8    26.36% 19.09% 17.27% 11.82%           18.64%

  9    38.18% 15.45% 23.64% 22.73%           25.00%

 NR*    0.00%  0.00%  0.91%  2.73%            0.01%

*Not revealed

First digit of the car is 2:

              Digit of car

Number  2nd    3rd     4th    5th           Overall

  1    36.84%  6.32%  2.11%  8.42%           13.42%

  2    17.89% 16.84%  7.37%  6.32%           12.11%

  3    17.89% 14.74% 13.68% 12.63%           14.73%

  4    14.74% 11.58%  9.47%  7.37%           10.79%

  5     4.21%  5.26%  4.21%  7.37%            5.26%

  6     5.26%  6.32%  5.26%  4.21%            5.26%

  7     2.11%  8.42% 13.68%  8.42%            8.16%

  8     1.05% 18.94% 15.79% 10.53%           11.58%

  9     0.00% 11.58% 27.37% 30.53%           17.37%

 NR*    0.00%  0.00%  1.05%  4.21%            1.32%

*Not revealed

Two notes:

• They have not used a 0 as a digit in the car's price in Lucky $even in a long time.
• There have been 6 playings of Lucky $even for cars $30,000 or more; that's not enough data to draw conclusions from, thus, no table.

Strategy

Don't pick 4, 5, or 6!! You can see how infrequently the digits of the price are 4, 5, and 6 are used. There are only two exceptions:

1. If you believe they really want you to win the car. For example, during the season opening week or sometimes during Dream Car week, they want you to win, and they'll give you an easy price like $57,465 (an actual price in season 43.) 
2. If you're on the last digit and have at least $5 left, then guessing 5 will guarantee winning.

But usually the price is going to be more like $21,298 (an actual price from season 47.) How do you know whether to go low or high? The second digit you can figure out based on the kind of car. But the third and beyond...they can add whatever options they want to give you a price with numbers nowhere near the middle. There is a bit of a trend, though: they generally use 7, 8, and 9 more often than 1, 2, and 3, especially for the last digit. So if you're not sure, go high (meaning, guess a 7 or 8.) But you can also guess a 2 or a 3 and I won't object. But again: don't pick 4, 5, or 6!! Yes, you'll lose quickly if you guess a 2 and it's a 9, but picking 4, 5, and 6 all but guarantees a slow loss. By guessing low or high numbers, you at least have a chance.

The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Line 'em Up

Line 'em Up

Rules

A car is shown as are three smaller prizes. The first and last digits of the car's price are given. The second digit of the car is one of the three digits of the price of the first prize, the third digit of the car is one of the two digits of the price of the second prize, and the fourth digit of the car is one of the three digits of the price of the fourth prize. The contestant must choose what they think the price of the car is. If they are right, they win the car and the prizes; if they are wrong, they are told how many of the middle three digits they got correct. They then make changes. If they are right about the car at that point, they win the car and the three prizes; if not, the game ends and they lose.

Random fact

They have never used a car in this game that has cost $20,000 or more. (Edit: Flerbert419 at golden-road.net pointed out they did use a $20,000+ car in this game on the 2/10/10 episode. So it's quite rare for them to use a $20,000+ car in this game but not unheard of.)

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-46): 90-114 (44.33%)
• What it would be by random chance: 2/9 (22.22%)

For each prize, which digit was correct? (seasons 40-46)

First prize (second car digit):

• 1st digit was correct: 34 playings (35.79%)
• 2nd digit was correct: 29 playings (30.53%)
• 3rd digit was correct: 32 playings (33.68%)
• Smallest digit was correct: 15 playings (15.79%)
• 2nd smallest digit was correct: 39 playings (41.05%)
• Largest digit was correct: 41 playings (43.16%)

Second prize (third car digit):

• 1st digit was correct: 47 playings (49.47%)
• 2nd digit was correct: 48 playings (50.53%)
• Smaller digit was correct: 57 playings (60.00%)
• Larger digit was correct: 38 playings (40.00%)

Third prize (fourth car digit):

• 1st digit was correct: 26 playings (27.37%)
• 2nd digit was correct: 42 playings (44.21%)
• 3rd digit was correct: 27 playings (28.42%)
• Smallest digit was correct: 31 playings (32.63%)
• 2nd smallest digit was correct: 36 playings (37.89%)
• Largest digit was correct: 28 playings (29.47%)

Strategy

Mostly know the price, though you can get some clues from the above trends. For the second digit of the car, it's uncommon for the smallest digit in the corresponding prize's price to be correct; for example, if that prize is $675, it's uncommon for 5 to be the correct digit. For the third digit, it's usually the smaller option, and for the fourth digit, the second digit is correct more frequently than the other two digits. So that would make a good first guess if you're clueless. Also, remember you're more likely to have the middle digit right than the second or fourth digit simply because there are only two digits to choose from. So if you have two correct, it's a good bet the middle digit is one of the two--by random chance, given that you have two correct, you have an 80% chance of having the middle digit and one other correct but only a 20% chance of having the first and third digits correct.

Also, don't forget about the "consecutive digits besides the first two don't repeat" rule. Just be a little careful--there was exactly one playing in every season from season 43-46 inclusive that broke that rule. However, no playings in season 47 broke that rule.

The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Let 'em Roll

Let 'em Roll

Rules

A car is shown and 5 dice are given to the contestant; each die has 3 sides with a picture of a car, one side with $500, one side with $1,000, and one side with $1,500. The contestant is given one roll for free. Three grocery items are then shown. The contestant must decide whether the second item is higher priced or lower priced than the first item; if they are correct, they get an extra roll. They then must decide if the third item is higher priced or lower priced than the second item; if they are correct, they get an extra roll. The contestant then rolls the dice. After each roll, if they have 5 cars, they win the car. Otherwise, if they have a roll remaining, they can keep the cash showing or keep the dice that say "car" off to the side and roll only the dice that cash amounts on them. After their last roll, they win whatever cash is showing or the car if all five dice show "car" on them.

Random fact

Believe it or not, this game has been won in one roll. See it here:

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-46): 99-128 (43.61%)
  (Note it only counts as a win if the contestant won the car. Early cash bailouts count as losses.)
• What it would be by random chance: 33383/131072 (25.47%)

Was the correct choice higher or lower? (seasons 40-46)

First choice

• Higher: 54 playings (71.05%)
• Lower: 22 playings (28.95%)

Second choice

• Higher: 43 playings (56.58%)
• Lower: 33 playings (43.42%)

Overall

• Higher: 77 times (63.82%)
• Lower: 55 times (36.18%)

Were the two choices the same or different? (seasons 40-46)

• The same (both higher or both lower): 51 playings (67.11%)
• Different (one higher and one lower): 25 playings (33.89%)

Strategy

Part 1: Pricing. There's nothing foolproof here, so knowing the prices is best. But note that higher is correct more often than lower, especially for the first choice. Also note that more than 2/3 of the time, the second choice is the same as the first choice. Those facts can help you.

Part 2: Should you stay or should you roll on? Like I talked about in Gas Money, you need to decide what the value of the car is to you. Are you going to sell it? Then the value is whatever you can sell it for? Are you going to turn it down? Then the value is $0. Are you going to keep it? Then the value is whatever the announced value is. Once you have that, here are the tables that tell you whether you should keep playing or not. The amount shown in each spot is the minimum value of the car that it should be for you to take another roll, rounded to the nearest dollar. N/A means that combination is not possible.

If you have two rolls left...

         Number of dice left

Cash    1     2     3     4       5

$500   $333  N/A   N/A   N/A     N/A

$1000 $1000  $889  N/A   N/A     N/A

$1500 $1667 $1778 $1778  N/A     N/A

$2000  N/A  $2667 $2963  $3160   N/A

$2500  N/A  $3556 $4148  $4741  $5267

$3000  N/A  $4444 $5333  $6321  $7374

$3500  N/A   N/A  $6519  $7901  $9481

$4000  N/A   N/A  $7703  $9481 $11588

$4500  N/A   N/A  $8889 $11062 $13695

$5000  N/A   N/A   N/A  $12642 $15802

$5500  N/A   N/A   N/A  $14222 $17909

$6000  N/A   N/A   N/A  $15802 $20016

$6500  N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   $22123

$7000  N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   $24230

$7500  N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   $26337

If you have one roll left...

         Number of dice left

Cash    1     2     3       4       5

$500   $0    N/A   N/A     N/A     N/A

$1000 $1000  $0    N/A     N/A     N/A

$1500 $2000 $2000   $0     N/A     N/A

$2000  N/A  $4000 $4000    $0      N/A

$2500  N/A  $6000 $8000   $8000    $0

$3000  N/A  $8000 $12000 $16000  $16000

$3500  N/A   N/A  $16000 $24000  $32000

$4000  N/A   N/A  $20000 $32000  $48000

$4500  N/A   N/A  $24000 $40000  $64000

$5000  N/A   N/A   N/A   $48000  $80000

$5500  N/A   N/A   N/A   $56000  $96000

$6000  N/A   N/A   N/A   $64000 $112000

$6500  N/A   N/A   N/A     N/A  $128000

$7000  N/A   N/A   N/A     N/A  $144000

$7500  N/A   N/A   N/A     N/A  $160000

The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: It's in the Bag

It's in the Bag

Rules

6 grocery products are shown as are 5 prices on 5 "bags". The contestant must choose which grocery products cost the amount shown on the 5 bags. If the contestant gets the first one right, they win $1,000. After that, they must make a choice: continue or quit. If they quit, they leave with whatever money they've accumulated. If they continue and are right on the next item, they double their money. If they continue and are wrong, they lose their money. They continue until they quit, are wrong, or have won $16,000.

Random fact

Whenever this game is won, it's a special moment due to its rarity, but I was lucky enough to see this one in the studio. It's easily my favorite It's in the Bag win ever. I got to meet Sharon after the show and she's a wonderful woman. Here it is:

(Jump ahead to the 3:30 mark to watch the It's in the Bag playing.)

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-46): 24-313 (7.12%)
  (Note: it only counts as a win if the top prize was won. Thus, bailouts count as losses.)
• What it would be by random chance: 1/720 (0.14%)
• If you know the first two items and pick the rest by random chance: 1/24 (4.17%)

How often each item was in each bag (seasons 45-47)

Bag #    BL TL BM TM BR TR

None      2 15  1 13  5  9

1 (left) 10  0 17  5 13  0

2        15  3  8  2  9  8

3         8 10  3  9  9  4

4         9 11  5  4  2 11

5 (right) 1  5  9 11  7 10

(How to read that table: B stands for "bottom", T for "top", L for "left", M for "middle", and R for "right". For example, "BL" stands for "bottom left"; the item in the bottom left corner of the initial display has been in no bag 2 times, bag #1 10 times, bag #2 15 times, and so on.)

Strategy

Know the prices. This game may be the purest test of grocery pricing the show has. That said, the first two bags are always set up to be easy--the first bag is usually the obviously cheapest item and the second bag is usually the obviously most expensive item. Sometimes, they're even nice enough to make the third bag easy--it's often the obviously second-most expensive item. But bags 4 and 5 are where this game is won or lost, and there are no real patterns to suggest here, except maybe that the top left and top middle products are the most often to not be in any bag at all. That's not a very large sample size I have to work with, though, so use that fact with care. But if you know your grocery prices, $16,000 is yours!