The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Range Game

Range Game

Rules

A prize is shown as is a $600 range for that prize. The contestant chooses a $150 range inside that $600 range. If the range the contestant guesses for the prize contains the price of the prize, they win.

Random fact

The rangefinder is manually controlled by a stagehand. Usually that stagehand behaves, but not always...

Win-loss record (seasons 29-47)

• Actual (seasons 29-47): 212-189 (52.87%)
• What it would be by random chance: 1/4 (25%)

The price was how far from the bottom? (seasons 41*-47)

• $0-$149: 0 playings (0%)
• $150-$199: 3 playings (2.21%)
• $200-$249: 17 playings (12.50%)
• $250-$299: 54 playings (39.71%)
• $300-$349: 34 playings (25%)
• $350-$399: 18 playings (13.24%)
• $400-$449: 9 playings (6.62%)
• $450-$600: 1 playing (0.74%)

* I'm starting with season 41 because season 40 had some patterns that have not been repeated since--for example, the value of the prize was between $150 and $200 from the bottom of the range 12 times in that season.

The last two digits of the prize's value were...(seasons 41-47)

• Between 00 and 24: 31 playings (22.79%)
• Between 25 and 49: 29 playings (21.32%)
• Between 50 and 74: 40 playings (29.41%)
• Between 75 and 99: 46 playings (33.82%)

Strategy

Since no price is in the bottom $150, you should make sure the range moves up by $150 before you press the button. Beyond that, know the price, though if you're clueless, let the rangefinder move up $250 from the bottom before you press the button. There used to be a pattern where the last two digits were more frequently between 75 and 99 than the other options, but that has been changed in the last couple of seasons; in fact, there were only 3 playings in season 46 and 4 in season 47 where the last digits were in that range. Thus, a strategy like "make sure two multiples of $100 are covered by the range" is no longer any better than random chance.

The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Race Game

Race Game

Rules

Four prizes are shown as are four price tags. The contestant must match up the price tags to the corresponding prizes. The contestant is then shown how many they got correct; if they got fewer than 4, they get to make changes and try again. They keep going until they either run out of the allotted 45 seconds or get all 4 right.

Random fact

The show kicked off its 40th season by playing Race Game for four cars. Here's how it went:

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-47): 113-97 (53.81%)
• What it would be by random chance: N/24, where N is the number of unique solutions the contestant can try in 45 seconds.

Which combinations were correct? (seasons 40-47)

• 1234: 7 playings (8.05%)
• 1243: 5 playings (5.75%)
• 1324: 0 playings (0%)
• 1342: 2 playings (2.30%)
• 1423: 0 playings (0%)
• 1432: 3 playings (3.45%)
• 2134: 8 playings (9.20%)
• 2143: 5 playings (5.75%)
• 2314: 8 playings (9.20%)
• 2341: 2 playings (2.30%)
• 2413: 3 playings (3.45%)
• 2431: 4 playings (4.60%)
• 3124: 4 playings (4.60%)
• 3142: 0 playings (0%)
• 3214: 3 playings (3.45%)
• 3241: 2 playings (2.30%)
• 3412: 0 playings (0%)
• 3421: 4 playings (4.60%)
• 4123: 4 playings (4.60%)
• 4132: 4 playings (4.60%)
• 4213: 4 playings (4.60%)
• 4231: 2 playings (2.30%)
• 4312: 7 playings (8.05%)
• 4321: 6 playings (6.90%)

The way to read the above table is that "1" means the cheapest prize, "2" means the second cheapest prize, "3" means the second most expensive prize, and "4" means the most expensive prize. So 2143 means the prize on the left was the second cheapest, the second prize from the left was the cheapest, the third prize was the most expensive, and the prize on the far right was the second most expensive.

Strategy

DO NOT LOOK AT THE AUDIENCE!!!

You simply do not have time. Your goal is to get 4 tries in the 45 seconds (no one has had more than 4 attempts since at least season 29.) Looking at the audience wastes valuable time. So this really comes down to a "know the prices" game--unfortunately, there's no mathematically clever way to guarantee a win in just 4 tries. Do try to keep track of your previous guesses--they can help you narrow down what prices go where. Also note that if you get two right, switch two, and you end up with none right, you know the correct answer: switch the two back that you just switched, and then switch the other two. For example, let's say you try 4132 and you get two right. You then switch the first two to get 1432 and have none right. Then you know the correct answer must be 4123--switch the first two back and the switch the last two.

The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Push Over

Push Over

Rules

A prize is shown as is a set of blocks with numbers on them. Somewhere in that set is the four or five digits of the price of the prize. If the contestant selects the price of the prize correctly, they win.

Random fact

When Push Over first debuted, it had a red and yellow set instead of the blue and yellow set we have now. Here's the debut playing:

Win-loss rate

• Actual (seasons 29-47): 254-256 (49.80%)
• What it would be by random chance: 1/6 (16.67%) for four digit prizes or 1/5 (20%) for five digit prizes. Of course, this assumes all possible prices are equally likely, which is almost always bogus.

Which price was correct? (seasons 40-47)

Four digit prizes

• x x x x x [X X X X] was right: 0 playings (0%)
• x x x x [X X X X] x was right: 36 playings (21.43%)
• x x x [X X X X] x x was right: 51 playings (30.36%)
• x x [X X X X] x x x was right: 38 playings (22.62%)
• x [X X X X] x x x x was right: 38 playings (22.62%)
• [X X X X] x x x x x was right: 5 playings (2.98%)

Five digit prizes

• x x x x [X X X X X] was right: 0 playings (0%)
• x x x [X X X X X] x was right: 23 playings (50%)
• x x [X X X X X] x x was right: 16 playings (34.78%)
• x [X X X X X] x x x was right: 5 playings (10.87%)
• [X X X X X] x x x x was right: 2 playings (4.35%)

Strategy

Mostly know the price, but a couple of things can help you here:

1. The correct price is never the first one. You must always push at least one block over.
2. Similarly, the very last possible price is rarely correct. Only select that one if you're sure of it.
3. There hasn't been a prize worth less than $5,000 in this game since the end of season 41. So any prices less than $5,000 can be immediately thrown out.
4. Since season 44, there haven't been more than 3 prizes in a season in this game that ended in a 5 or a 0. So if you're not sure, throw those prices out. However, prizes that end in 9 do come up with reasonable frequency, so don't throw those out.

The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Punch a Bunch

Punch a Bunch

Rules

Four small prizes are shown, each with an incorrect price. The contestant must decide if the actual price is higher or lower than the price shown. However many they get correct, they get that many punches on the punch board. The contestant then punches that number of holes. One at a time, Drew reveals how much each punch was worth; the contestant can choose to throw that money away and keep playing or quit with the amount of money shown. The contestant wins whichever amount of money they keep, or the last amount of money revealed if they played until their last punch.

Random fact

When this game first debuted, it was played much differently. You can see an example here:

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-47): 22-336 (6.15%)
  (Note: it only counts as a win if the top prize, $25,000, is won.)
• What it would be by random chance: 1/25 (4%)

The correct choice for the small prizes was...(seasons 40-47)

• Higher: 239 prizes (43.61%)
• Lower: 309 prizes (56.39%)

How often was each combination of highers and lowers correct? (seasons 40-47)

• 4 Higher: 0 playings (0%)
• 3 Higher, 1 Lower: 13 playings (9.49%)
• 2 Higher, 2 Lower: 77 playings (56.20%)
• 1 Higher, 3 Lower: 47 playings (34.31%)
• 4 Lower: 0 playings (0%)

Stats for each hole (seasons 40-47)

The way to read the following table is for each hole, the first line is how often it contained $10,000 or more, and the second line is how much money it contained on average. For example, the top left corner reads "0/18"--this means that in 18 punches, it contained $10,000 or more 0 times. The average of all the values that were found in that hole was $1,302. Note this excludes the playing where a dream car was offered.

 0/18   0/5    0/11   0/10    0/6   0/7    0/8    0/10   0/5   0/14

$1302  $2200  $1736  $1450   $792  $1121  $1813  $1125  $2350 $1686

 1/5    0/8    1/17   1/13   0/12   0/12   0/9    0/20   0/14   0/4

$2900  $1344  $3059  $1308   $583   $588  $1122  $1183  $2264  $563

 0/3    0/11    0/9   1/10   0/27   0/14   0/11   2/12   0/9    0/0

$1083   $714  $1889  $1950  $1535  $1682  $1114  $3600  $1667   N/A

 0/2    0/11   0/16    0/6   1/8    0/9    0/7     0/9   0/15   1/3

$1375   $632   $916   $767  $4169  $1317  $2571   $761  $1130 $3533 

 0/6    1/10   0/6     0/3    0/2   0/5    0/4    1/10    0/8  0/11

$625   $1345  $1958  $1867   $175  $3700   $588  $2475   $650  $782

Bold means $10,000 or more was found there at least once.

Strategy

Part 1: Small prize pricing

Know the prices. They don't make this part hard because they want people to punch the board. Do note that it's never been all four prices are higher or all four prices are lower, so if the first three have the same answer, you know the fourth will be the opposite answer.

Part 2: Which holes to punch?

DON'T PUNCH THE CORNERS!! The producers know that people like to punch the corners so they never place the big money there--you can see none of the corners has had the big cash since season 40. (To be fair, the dream car was in the top right corner; I excluded that playing because the car replaced a $100 slip. I don't know if the producers placed all the slips, then replaced a $100 they had put in the top right corner with the car or if they intentionally placed the car in that spot.) Otherwise, it's really a crapshoot. I personally would go for the 4th through 7th spots on the bottom row, because very few people punch those spots. If you want to try something no one else has, punch the far right spot in the middle row--no one has tried that since season 39 at least.

Part 3: Should you continue?

The naive analysis would simply be to look at the average amount on the board, which is $2,260 $2,060 (thanks to TPIRfan#9821 for the correction!), and say that if you have more than that you should stop. So that analysis would state that if you get $2,500 or more, stop, $1,000 or less, and you should continue. I'm going to go a little deeper than that, though. Here's another table...

If you   # of picks     Probability of all other picks being

 have       left        strictly less than what you have now

$250         1                        10.20%

$250         2                         0.85%

$250         3                         0.054%

$500         1                        30.61%

$500         2                         8.93%

$500         3                         2.47%

$1,000       1                        51.02%

$1,000       2                        25.51%

$1,000       3                        12.48%

$2,500       1                        71.43%

$2,500       2                        50.60%

$2,500       3                        35.52%

$5,000       1                        87.76%

$5,000       2                        76.79%

$5,000       3                        66.98%

$10,000      1                        95.92%

$10,000      2                        91.92%

$10,000      3                        88.01%

Note: this table assumes that the amount you currently have is the one and only punch you've taken so far. It doesn't change things drastically if you remove that assumption. 

As you can see, I've highlighted the rows where continuing would mean that you'd lose money more likely than not. Here's that strategy in a simple bullet list:

• If you have $500 or less, continue.
• If you have $1,000, stop if and only if you have exactly 1 pick left.
• If you have $2,500, stop if and only if you have 1 or 2 picks left. If you have 3, continue.
• If you have $5,000 or more, stop. Period. (Yes, I know of the guy in the 1990s who threw away $5,000 when the top prize was $10,000, and then managed to get the $10,000. That's so incredibly unlikely you should not follow suit.)

The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Pocket Change

Pocket Change

Rules

A car is shown as are 6 numbers. 5 of those numbers are in the price of the car and the 6th number is a fake. The first digit of the car is shown to the contestant and they are given a slip worth 25 cents. The car has a price tag in front of it that shows it costs 25 cents at that moment. The contestant guesses what they think the next number is based on the remaining digits. If they are wrong, the price of the car goes up by 25 cents; if they are right, they get to take a card off the board. That card will be an amount of money worth anywhere from nothing to $2. At the end of the game, if the amount the contestant has accumulated through envelopes is greater than or equal to the price of the car, the contestant wins the car.

Random fact

In early playings of this game, In the first playing of this game, the contestant was not given the first number for free. You can see an example here:

(Thanks to SteveGavazzi at golden-road.net for pointing out this rule was in effect for the first playing only!)

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 33-47): 83-97 (46.11%)
• What it would be by random chance: 239351/581400 (41.17%)

For each digit, how often was it in the car vs. being a fake? (seasons 40-47)

Note: the following table excludes the first digit of the car's price.

          # times       # times in      # times it

Digit     on board      car price       was the fake

  0          24         23 (95.85%)       1 (4.17%)

  1          43         42 (97.67%)       1 (2.33%)

  2          24         21 (87.50%)       3 (12.50%)

  3          60         44 (73.33%)      16 (26.67%)

  4          45         39 (86.67%)       6 (13.33%)

  5          47         20 (42.55%)      27 (57.45%)

  6          45         43 (95.56%)       2 (4.44%)

  7          58         45 (77.59%)      13 (22.41%)

  8          56         45 (80.36%)      11 (19.64%)

  9          53         42 (79.25%)      11 (20.75%)

Strategy

Part 1: Car pricing

Mostly know the price, but you can sniff out the fake. If you see a 5, there's a better than 50% chance it's a fake--avoid it unless you're certain it belongs. On the other hand, if, after the first digit is revealed, you see a 0, 1, 2, 4, and/or 6 remaining, there's a very good chance it or they will be in the car.

Part 2: Which cards to pick

Unfortunately, they don't reveal the cards that the contestant doesn't pick, so I don't have anything brilliant here. For example, the card that's been revealed to be the $2 card the most often is the top card of the second column...but that's been revealed to be the $2 card a whopping three times in 180 playings. No other spot has been shown to have the card more than twice. So you have nothing to lose by picking the top card of the second column, but don't bet your house on it. Otherwise, I would pick cards at the very top, very left, very bottom, or very right, as most contestants go for cards in the middle.

Part 2b: If you're daring

If you look closely, whenever the contestant picks an envelope, Drew quickly looks at the back of it. I believe there's a mark on the $2 envelope so that if the contestant picks it, Drew can put it last to maximize the drama. So if you're daring, you can try to look at the back of the envelope briefly as you pull the envelope out of its slot and put it back if you don't see a mark; IMHO, this wouldn't be cheating because you're not looking at the actual value. Of course, the staff might not agree, so do this at your own risk...

The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Plinko

Plinko

Rules

The contestant is given a Plinko chip for free. Four small prizes are then shown, each of which has a wrong price. The contestant must decide if the first digit in the wrong price is the first digit in the actual price or if the last digit in the wrong price is the last digit in the actual price. If they are correct, they get another Plinko chip. They then take their Plinko chips to the board and drop them one at a time. They win whatever money their chips land in.

Random fact

For the game's 30th anniversary, the show had an episode where they played Plinko 6 times. Buzzfeed wrote a behind the scenes article about it here:

https://www.buzzfeed.com/adambvary/inside-the-all-plinko-episode-of-the-price-is-right

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-47): 0-564 (0%)
• What it would be by random chance: 35/958579 (0.0037%)
  (That assumes the contestant drops every chip from the center slot.)

<voice from offstage> WHAT?!?!?!?!?!

Hey, I don't make the rules. According to the show's staff, a game is considered to be won if and only if its main announced prize is won. In Plinko's case, that means the full $50,000 must be won for the game to be won. 

Yeah, but...

But what?

Can we consider it to be a win if the contestant hits the center slot at least once? Please?

OK, fine. Here are the stats for that...

Win-loss record if a win means the center slot was hit at least once

• Actual (seasons 29-47): 257-307 (45.57%)
• What it would be by random chance: 1456/2799 (52.02%)
  (That assumes the contestant drops every chip from the center slot.)

Correct choice for the small prizes... (seasons 40-47)

Last digit of   % of time first   % of time last

 wrong price    digit was right   digit was right

      0               2.90             97.10

      1              94.20              5.80

      2              57.89             42.11

      3              71.79             28.21

      4              82.76             17.24

      5               7.03             92.97

      6              73.97             26.03

      7              50.77             49.23

      8              65.79             34.21

      9              18.67             81.33

Strategy

Part 1: Small Prizes

Simply put, if the last digit is 0, 5, or 9, your guess should be that the last digit is the correct one, unless you have strong reason to believe otherwise. If the last digit is 1, 3, 4, 6, or 8, your guess should be that the first digit is the correct one. If it's 2 or 7, you need to know the price. That said, to simplify this, if you want to think of it as "0, 5, or 9 means last, otherwise choose first," I won't object to that.

Part 2: Where to drop the chip from

Drop every chip from the center slot. I repeat, drop every chip from the center slot. One more time:

DROP EVERY CHIP FROM THE CENTER SLOT!!!!

Your expected winnings are highest if you drop the chip from the center slot. This makes sense--the chip is equally likely to bounce left or right. If you drop the chip from the center slot, you need an equal number of left and right bounces to get the $10,000. If you drop the chip from one slot left of the center slot, you need seven bounces to the right and five to the left to get the $10,000. Which do you think is more likely--six bounces to the right and six bounces to the left or seven bounces to the right and five to the left? Yup, the first one. One thing this means is that you should NOT correct for a previous bad bounce. In other words, if you drop your first chip from the center slot and it goes into the left $0, do NOT move one spot to the right for your next drop. You should drop every chip from the center slot no matter what the previous results were!

Let me back this up with some data from a simulation I created where I "released" 10 million chips over each slot. 

Where the chip       % of time center       Avg. winnings

was dropped from        slot was hit         of each chip

Left- or right-             3.21               $779.54

most slot   

Second slot from            5.67             $1,009.77

the left or right      

Third slot from            12.11             $1,606.17

the left or right     

Slot adjacent to           19.37             $2,269.45

the center slot    

Center slot                22.58*            $2,559.93

* The theoretical rate of the chip hitting $10,000 if you drop it from the center slot is 924/4096, or 22.56%. So my simulation gets pretty close to that rate.

The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Pick-A-Pair

Pick-A-Pair

Rules

A prize is shown as are six grocery items. The contestant picks two grocery items. If they have the same price, the contestant wins the prize. Otherwise, the contestant keeps one of the two grocery items they initially chose and try to find the item that matches its price. If successful, they win; if not, they lose.

Random fact

When this game first debuted, it used a mini-Ferris wheel to display the products. You can see a playing here from the 1980s nighttime show:

(Jump ahead to the 6:45 mark to see the Pick-A-Pair playing.)

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-47): 223-68 (76.63%)
• What it would be by random chance: 2/5 (40%)

Strategy

The easiest way to play this game is to pick either the two most expensive products or the two cheapest products, whichever is easier for you to deduce. But because they never reveal the prices of more than four items, and usually only reveal only two or three of the prices, I cannot draw any conclusions about which pairs are more or less likely to be correct.