The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: That's Too Much!

That's Too Much!

Rules

A car is shown as is a line of 10 prices. The prices are revealed one at time from cheapest to most expensive. The contestant must stop at the first price in the line that is greater than the price of the car. If they are correct, they win the car.

Random fact

Bob had contestants shout "That's Too Much!" as enthusiastically as they could. Here's one playing:

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-47): 119-373 (24.19%)
• What it would be by random chance: 1/10 (10%)

The correct price to stop at was price #...(seasons 40-47)

• 1: 0 playings (0%)
• 2: 0 playings (0%)
• 3: 70 playings (31.39%)
• 4: 41 playings (18.39%)
• 5: 24 playings (10.76%)
• 6: 21 playings (9.42%)
• 7: 46 playings (20.63%)
• 8: 21 playings (9.42%)
• 9: 0 playings (0%)
• 10: 0 playings (0%)

Strategy

You don't want to fall for the psychological game of "it doesn't feel right to wait this long" or "it doesn't feel right to stop so soon." The way to do this is to decide on what you believe to be the price of the car before the first price is revealed. Then you won't be afraid to wait until the seventh price or stop at the third price (the two most commonly correct prices). Also note it's never the first, second, ninth, or tenth price. (The second and ninth prices were frequently correct in seasons 37 & 38, but neither has been correct since season 39.) All that said, if you have no idea what the price is, stop at the third price.

The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: 10 Chances

10 Chances

Rules

Three prizes are shown, the first of which has two digits in its price, the second of which has three digits in its price, and the last of which is a car with five digits in its price. The contestant starts by guessing the price of the first prize from three given digits. Then they must guess the price of the second prize from four given digits. Finally, they must guess the price of the car from five given digits. The contestant is given 10 total chances; if they run out of chances before they guess the price of the car, they win whatever prize(s) they correctly guessed.

Random fact

Because of the nature of this game, some contestants end up completely clueless but still win this game. Here's an example of how Bob handled one of those contestants toward the end of his run as host:

UNWRITTEN RULE

EVERY CORRECT PRICE IN THIS GAME ENDS IN 0.

This may be the most famous unwritten rule on the show, and it means every prize they ever use in 10 Chances ends in 0. Without exception. If you haven't found the correct price and you're tempted to try endings that aren't 0, stop. Look for the combinations you missed that have the 0 at the end. You are wasting chances if you try prices that end in something other than 0.

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-47): 81-86 (48.50%)
• What it would be by random chance if you follow the 0 rule and know the first digit of the car: 7/9 (77.78%)

Strategy

I don't need data for this game beyond the 0 rule. If you end all of your guesses with 0 and have even just a bit of a clue about the prices of things, you'll win every time. In fact, since at least season 32, every contestant who has ended all of their guesses in 0 has won this game. But I'll add one more thing that can help: the second prize has always been at least $500 since season 43. That can help you remove some combinations for the second prize.

Edited to add: If you want more detail besides "every prize ends in 0", check out this excellent post by RatRace10 at golden-road.net. You should read the whole thing, but I'll mention one point to whet your appetite: very rarely is the first prize $50 and very rarely does the second prize end in $x50. So if you see a 5 in the first two prizes, it's very likely not the tens digit.

The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Temptation

Temptation

Rules

A car is shown as is the first digit of the price of the car. Then four prizes and their prices are shown, one at a time. Each digit of the price of the car matches a digit of the corresponding prize's price; for example, the second digit of the car's price is a digit in the price of the first prize. The contestant must decide what they think the price of the car is from those prizes; they choose one at a time, but after all four prizes are revealed, the contestant may make any changes they wish. The contestant must then decide if they want to go for the car or keep the prizes shown and give up the opportunity to win the car. If they go for the car and are correct, they win the car and the four prizes; if they go for the car and are incorrect, they win nothing.

Random fact

Early in the show's history, there was a game called Double Digits that had sort of similar mechanics. It was played a total of five times. You can see a playing here:

(Jump ahead to the 1:50 mark to see the Double Digits playing.)

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-47): 20-154 (11.49%)
• What it would be by random chance assuming you never take the gifts: 1/16 (6.25%)

The correct digit to choose was...(seasons 40-47)

• The higher digit in the prize's price: 135 prizes (46.23%)
• The lower digit in the prize's price: 157 prizes (53.77%)
• The digit that appeared more frequently in the prize's price**: 106 prizes (47.11%)
• The digit that appeared less frequently in the prize's price**: 119 prizes (52.89%)

* Excluding the $549 prize used in season 40 (Correction: the prize I thought was $549 was actually $559. The data above has been updated. Thanks to Punchboard91 at golden-road.net for pointing that out!)

** Excluding prizes where the digits appeared equally often (such as $2,299 in cash.)

Strategy

Car pricing strategy

The last digit is almost always 5, and when it's not 5, it's 0. Since at least season 40, the prices of all the cars in this game have ended in 0 or 5; in seasons 46 and 47, one car had a price ending in 0 and all the others ended in 5. For digits 2-4, it's "know the price" territory.

Should you take the prizes or go for the car?

In order to decide if you should go for the car, you need to know two things:

1. The ratio (R) of the value of the car to you against the value of the prizes. For example, if the car is worth $18,000 to you and the prizes are worth $6,000, this ratio is $18,000/$6,000, or 3.
2. The probability (P) that you are right about the car.

Given those values, go for the car if and only if  P > 1/(R+1). For example, if R (the ratio) is 3, then go for the car if and only if the probability you have the car's price right is 1/(3+1) = 1/4 = 25% or greater.

The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Take Two

Take Two

Rules

Four prizes are shown as is a target price. The contestant must choose which two prizes whose prices, when added, equal that target price. The contestant gets two chances to come up with the two prizes.

Random fact

This game used to have a much plainer rectangular board. You can see a playing of it here:

(Jump to the 28:30 mark to see the Take Two playing.)

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-47): 73-64 (53.28%)
• What it would be by random chance: 1/3 (33.33%)

The correct two prizes to choose were...(seasons 40-47)

• The two cheapest prizes: 0 playings (0%)
• The cheapest and the second most expensive prizes: 1 playing (season 40) (1.45%)
• The cheapest and the most expensive prizes: 12 playings (17.39%)
• The second cheapest and second most expensive prizes: 4 playings (5.80%)
• The second cheapest and the most expensive prizes: 41 playings (59.42%)
• The two most expensive prizes: 11 playings (15.94%)

Strategy

The most expensive prize was part of the correct combination 64 out of 69 times from seasons 40-47. Further, the most expensive prize has been part of the correct combination in every single playing since season 44. So the strategy here is to find the most expensive prize and then find the prize that combines with it to get the target price.

The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Switcheroo

Switcheroo

Rules

A car is shown as are four small prizes. The prices of all 5 prizes are revealed with their 10s digit missing, and the 5 missing values are shown to the contestant. The contestant has 30 seconds to decide which number goes with which prize. They are shown how many they have correct; if they don't have all 5 correct, the contestant is given another 30 seconds to make changes if they so desire.

Random fact

When this game was played on the 1980s nighttime version of the show, it had different think music. Also, the set at the time didn't have a clock on it. You can see a playing here:

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-47): 37-143 (20.56%)
• What it would be by random chance: 31/150 (20.67%) (This assumes you make changes unless you get all 5 numbers right on the first try.)

The correct number to choose for the car was...(seasons 40-47)

• 1: 25 playings (33.33%)
• 2: 18 playings (24%)
• 3: 25 playings (33.33%)
• 4: 3 playings (4%) (all in season 47)
• 5: 0 playings (0%)
• 6: 4 playings (5.33%) (never more than once in a season)
• 7: 0 playings (0%)
• 8: 0 playings (0%)
• 9: 0 playings (0%)

Strategy

Choose a low number for the price of the car!!! It's almost always 1, 2, or 3, though they did sneak in some 4's in season 47. Also, the missing number is rarely the same as the digit to its left or right; that's only happened 7 times in the 75 playings from seasons 40-47. Beyond that, you should use process of elimination to figure out the correct digit for the car. To do this, figure out the prices of the small prizes first. Put those blocks in, and then put the block for the car's price last. As for whether to make changes or not after the first attempt, that's up to you; if you have three right, the numbers say you shouldn't change the price of the car since you have a 60% chance of that being right, but if you have two or fewer numbers right, you should change the price of the car. But that is of course assuming you placed the blocks randomly.

The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Switch?

Switch?

Rules

Two prizes are shown, each with a price. The contestant must decide if those prices are correct or if they need to be switched. If they decide correctly, they win both prizes.

Random fact

The music they play while switching the prices is the very end of the song they play during Switcheroo.

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-47): 350-192 (64.58%)
• What it would be by random chance: 1/2 (50%)

The correct decision was to...(seasons 40-47)

• Switch: 134 playings (58.26%)
• Not switch: 96 playings (41.74%)

Strategy

If this game is played for two trips, remember the trip rule: the trip farther from LA is more expensive. Otherwise, don't worry about the exact prices, instead, think of which prize you think is more expensive and go from there. If you really have no idea, go ahead and switch, as that's slightly more likely to be right (and, as a fan, I like hearing the music 😃.)

The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Swap Meet

Swap Meet

Rules

A prize is shown on-stage and three more are shown behind a curtain. If the contestant can choose which of the prizes behind the curtain has the same price as the prize on-stage, they win all four prizes.

Random fact

Swap Meet debuted on the first episode of the 20th season of the show. You can see it here:

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-47): 80-88 (47.62%)
• What it would be by random chance: 1/3 (33.33%)

The correct prize to choose was...(seasons 40-47)

• The left-most prize: 22 playings (29.73%)
• The middle prize: 29 playings (39.19%)
• The right-most prize: 23 playings (31.08%)
• The most expensive prize: 7 playings (9.46%)
• The middle-priced prize: 20 playings (27.03%)
• The cheapest prize: 47 playings (63.51%)

Strategy

If you know the prices, that's the best strategy here. But there's a very strong trend for the cheapest prize to be the correct one, so if you're not completely certain, pick the prize you think is the cheapest.