The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Showcase Showdown (a.k.a. The Wheel)

Showcase Showdown (a.k.a. The Wheel)

Rules

There is a wheel with 20 values on it; those values are multiples of 5 cents from 5 cents to $1 (so 5 cents, 10 cents, 15 cents, ..., $1.) Each contestant must spin at least once and can spin twice if they choose to. A spin must go all the way around or it doesn't count. A contestant's score is the value of their one spin or sum of their two spins. The contestant who gets closest to $1 without going over goes to the showcase. If two or more contestants tie, they each get exactly one more spin; the contestant who spun the higher or highest value during the spin-off goes to the showcase. And there's a bonus and bonus spins available for getting exactly $1, but that's irrelevant to the strategy.

Random fact

The original wheel looked nothing like today's wheel; instead it looked like a carnival wheel with various colors. It's often referred to as the Rainbow Wheel. You can see the first playing of it here:

Who actually won? (seasons 29-46)

• The first spinner won 30.17% of the time.
• The second spinner won 33.81% of the time.
• The third spinner won 36.05% of the time, so a small, but not huge, advantage.

Probabilities

(The following probabilities were calculated by enumerating all possible combinations of wheel spins and applying the strategy below.)

• Who wins:
• First spinner: 30.82%
• Second spinner: 32.96%
• Third spinner: 36.22%
• Getting $1 in one spin or a combination of two spins:
• At least one spinner: 23.03%
• At least two spinners: 2.35%
• All three spinners: 0.08%
  (Note the above three cases exclude the possibility of getting $1 in a spin-off, which would slightly increase the numbers.)
• Having a spin-off with...:
• Exactly two players: 11.32%
• All three players: 0.48%

Strategy

The only decision a contestant makes during this segment of the show is whether to take their second spin or not. How hard can that be? It turns out it's hard enough that people have written papers on it. So rather than attempt to derive the numbers here, I'll just spit out the results:

• Spinner 1 strategy:
• Stay if you spun 0.70 or more.
• Spin again if you spun 0.65 or less.
• Spinner 2 strategy:
• If you spun less than spinner 1, spin again. (Duh.)
• If you spun more than spinner 1, or if spinner 1 went over, stay if and only if you spun 0.55 or more. If you are in the lead after your first spin but spun 0.50 or less, spin again.
• If you tied spinner 1, stay if and only if you spun 0.70 or more. If you tied spinner 1 but spun 0.65 or less, spin again.
• Spinner 3 strategy:
• If you spun less than the total of whoever is leading after the first two contestants have spun, spin again. (Duh.)
• If you spun more than the total of whoever is leading after the first two contestants have spun, stay. (Again, duh. In fact, Drew probably won't even let you spin again in this case.)
• If you have exactly one person to beat and you tied them, stay and take the spin-off if and only if you spun 0.55 or more. If the value you tied is 0.50 or less, spin again.
• If the first two spinners tied and you tied both of them, stay and take the spin-off if and only if you spun 0.70 or more. If you tied two people at 0.65 or less, spin again.