The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Vend-O-Price

Vend-O-Price

Rules

A prize is shown. Three shelves are shown, each of which has a grocery item. The top shelf has the cheapest item while the bottom shelf has the most expensive item. Then each shelf is revealed to have a certain number of its featured item. The contestant must determine which shelf is the most expensive shelf.

Random fact

For the first couple of playings of this game, they used the old Penny Ante sound effect when revealing the grocery products. You can see the debut playing of the game here:

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 44-47): 34-33 (50.75%)
• What it would be by random chance: 1/3 (33.33%)

The correct shelf to choose was...(seasons 44-47)

• The top shelf: 18 playings (26.87%)
• The middle shelf: 27 playings (40.30%)
• The bottom shelf: 22 playings (32.84%)

Strategy

Much as this is a lame way to end the blog, know the prices of the grocery items. But one thing that can help is to think of this game in terms of ratios; for example, if one shelf has twice as many of a product as another shelf, then the item on the shelf with fewer items must be worth at least twice as much as the item on the shelf with more items to be more expensive.

The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: 2 for the Price of 1

2 for the Price of 1

Rules

Two prizes are shown, a large prize and a prize with three digits in its price. Two possibilities are shown for each digit in the three digit prize; the contestant can choose one of the digits to be revealed for free. They must correctly choose the other two digits to win both prizes.

Random fact

This game is occasionally played for cars. Here's an example of one such playing:

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-47): 70-85 (45.16%)
• What it would be by random chance: 1/4 (25%)

How often each combination was correct (seasons 40-47)

• All 3 numbers on top were right: 2 playings (2.99%) [none since season 42]
• 2 numbers on top and 1 on the bottom were right: 33 playings (49.25%)
• 1 number on top and 2 on the bottom were right: 32 playings (47.76%)
• All 3 numbers on the bottom were right: 0 playings (0%)

Strategy

If a 0 is an option for the last digit, choose the second digit for free. The last digit has been 0 in every playing of this game except one since season 44, and in that playing, 0 wasn't an option for the last digit. So if 0 is a choice for the last digit, that is NOT the one you want to choose for free. Choose the second digit for free, choose 0 for the last digit, and then you only have to know the hundreds digit of the prize. Regarding the hundreds digit, no prize in this game has been worth less than $500 since season 41, so if you see a choice that's less than 5 for the first digit, it's wrong.

That one playing where 0 wasn't a choice for the last digit was the very last playing of season 47, where the choices were 2 and 5. The 2 was correct. While I hope that was a one-time aberration, my advice is that if 0 is not a choice for the last digit, then you should choose the last digit for free instead of the second digit.

Finally, make sure that your final price has at least one digit from the top and one from the bottom.

The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Triple Play

Triple Play

Rules

Three cars are shown. For the first car, two prices are shown; the contestant must choose which price is closest to the actual retail price of the car without going over. If they are correct, they move on to the second car. That car has three prices; the contestant must again choose the price that is the closest to the price of the car without going over. If they are correct, they go to the last car, where they have four choices and must choose the one that is closest to the car's actual retail price without going over. If they are correct, they win all three cars; if they are wrong at any time, they win nothing.

Random fact

Triple Play is the only game on the show that has prizes that aren't always described by George. This is because the car is only described by George just before the contestant gives their guess; if the contestant doesn't reach the second or third car, its/their description/s is/are not read.

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-47): 13-74 (14.94%)
• What it would be by random chance: 1/24 (4.17%)

The correct price to choose was...(seasons 40-47)

First car

• The cheaper price: 7 playings (22.58%)
• The more expensive price: 24 playings (77.42%)

Second car*

• The cheapest price: 6 playings (31.58%)
• The middle price: 10 playings (52.63%)
• The most expensive price: 3 playings (15.79%)

Third car*

• The cheapest price: 7 playings (70%)
• The second cheapest price: 0 playings (0%)
• The second most expensive price: 3 playings (30%)
• The most expensive price: 0 playings (0%)

* Only counts playings the contestant reached that car.

Strategy

First car

Select the more expensive price unless you're absolutely sure the cheaper price is correct; the cheaper price hasn't been correct more than once in a season since season 40, and in seasons 44, 45, and 47, the cheaper price was never right.

Second and third cars

Know the prices. The middle price has been the most likely to be correct for the second car, but that's not enough data to be able to confidently say you should pick it. Ditto for the third car--yes, the cheapest price has been correct 70% of the time, but the sample size is far too small to confidently say that's really a pattern and not just a coincidence.

The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Time i$ Money

Time i$ Money

Rules

Five grocery products are shown as are three platforms with the amounts $0-$2.99, $3-$5.99, and $6+ written on them. The contestant has 10 seconds to move the grocery products on to the correct platforms based on their prices. If they are right, they win $20,000. If they are wrong, the contestant can make changes, but the $20,000 starts counting down to $0. The contestant wins however much money is showing on the money meter when they have the groceries in the correct positions.

Random fact

This game was completely refurbished and the rules changed in season 43; all the stats in this article are based on the refurbished version only. You can see the debut playing with the original rules here:

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 43-47): 4-72 (5.26%)
• What it would be by random chance: 1/81 (1.23%)

The correct number of items on each platform was...(seasons 43-47)

• 1/1/3: 7 playings (9.21%)
• 1/2/2: 23 playings (30.26%)
• 1/3/1: 5 playings (6.58%)
• 2/1/2: 24 playings (31.58%)
• 2/2/1: 16 playings (21.05%)
• 3/1/1: 1 playing (1.32%)

The correct placement of each product was...(seasons 43-47)

  Original

  position*    <=$2.99  $3-$5.99   $6+  

Left-most       24.68%   45.45%   29.87%

2nd from left   32.47%   16.88%   50.65%

Center          20.78%   40.26%   38.96%

2nd from right  40.26%   27.27%   32.47%

Right-most      38.96%   29.87%   31.17%

* From the audience's point of view.

Strategy

Mostly know the prices, but a couple of tips can help you here:

• DO NOT LOOK AT THE AUDIENCE!! You need to make as many guesses as you can; looking at the audience only slows you down.
• There is always at least one item on each platform. Do not leave any platforms empty.
• The combinations where one platform has 3 products are far less frequently correct than the ones where no platform has more than 2 products. Don't go for a 3/1/1, 1/3/1, or 1/1/3 combination unless you're reasonably sure of the three products that you think are in the same range.

The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: 3 Strikes

3 Strikes

Rules

A car is shown. A bag is shown; three balls painted red (the "strikes") are put into the bag and five balls, each of which has a number in the price of the car, are also put in the bag. The contestant draws numbers one at a time from the bag. If they draw a number, they must tell Drew which position in the price of the car the number is. If they are correct, the digit is lit up; if not, the ball is put back in the bag for the contestant to draw later. The contestant wins if they light up the entire price of the car before they draw the three strikes in the bag.

Random fact

This game was given a serious overhaul in season 47 to look like something you would see at a baseball stadium. As someone who lived in Boston for 14 years, went to many games at Fenway Park, and even once announced an inning of baseball on the radio, I love the look. You can see it here:

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 38*-47): 9-33 (21.43%)
• What it would be by random chance:
• If you know the price: Exactly 3/8 (37.5%)
• If you don't know the price at all**: Approx. 14.24%
• If you know only the first digit of the price**: Approx. 20.79% 

* Starting at season 38 as that's when the current rules of the game stabilized.

** Based on simulating the game 10 million times. The simulation chose things randomly but played perfect strategy; for example, it didn't try the same digit in the same place twice and if you tried four digits in one spot and they were all wrong, it would know to place the fifth digit there.

What was the last digit of the car's price? (seasons 40-47)

• 0: 0 playings (0%)
• 1: 5 playings (14.71%)
• 2: 8 playings (23.53%)
• 3: 6 playings (17.65%)
• 4: 2 playings (5.88%)
• 5: 2 playings (5.88%)
• 6: 7 playings (20.59%)
• 7: 3 playings (8.82%)
• 8: 0 playings (0%)
• 9: 1 playing (2.94%)

Strategy

Ask for a different game. After Drew is done laughing, pray you get really, really, really lucky. I don't have much here except that you should keep very close track of the picks you've made throughout the game so you don't repeat picks. Also, you should assume the last number is NOT 0, 5, or 9.

The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: That's Too Much!

That's Too Much!

Rules

A car is shown as is a line of 10 prices. The prices are revealed one at time from cheapest to most expensive. The contestant must stop at the first price in the line that is greater than the price of the car. If they are correct, they win the car.

Random fact

Bob had contestants shout "That's Too Much!" as enthusiastically as they could. Here's one playing:

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-47): 119-373 (24.19%)
• What it would be by random chance: 1/10 (10%)

The correct price to stop at was price #...(seasons 40-47)

• 1: 0 playings (0%)
• 2: 0 playings (0%)
• 3: 70 playings (31.39%)
• 4: 41 playings (18.39%)
• 5: 24 playings (10.76%)
• 6: 21 playings (9.42%)
• 7: 46 playings (20.63%)
• 8: 21 playings (9.42%)
• 9: 0 playings (0%)
• 10: 0 playings (0%)

Strategy

You don't want to fall for the psychological game of "it doesn't feel right to wait this long" or "it doesn't feel right to stop so soon." The way to do this is to decide on what you believe to be the price of the car before the first price is revealed. Then you won't be afraid to wait until the seventh price or stop at the third price (the two most commonly correct prices). Also note it's never the first, second, ninth, or tenth price. (The second and ninth prices were frequently correct in seasons 37 & 38, but neither has been correct since season 39.) All that said, if you have no idea what the price is, stop at the third price.

The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: 10 Chances

10 Chances

Rules

Three prizes are shown, the first of which has two digits in its price, the second of which has three digits in its price, and the last of which is a car with five digits in its price. The contestant starts by guessing the price of the first prize from three given digits. Then they must guess the price of the second prize from four given digits. Finally, they must guess the price of the car from five given digits. The contestant is given 10 total chances; if they run out of chances before they guess the price of the car, they win whatever prize(s) they correctly guessed.

Random fact

Because of the nature of this game, some contestants end up completely clueless but still win this game. Here's an example of how Bob handled one of those contestants toward the end of his run as host:

UNWRITTEN RULE

EVERY CORRECT PRICE IN THIS GAME ENDS IN 0.

This may be the most famous unwritten rule on the show, and it means every prize they ever use in 10 Chances ends in 0. Without exception. If you haven't found the correct price and you're tempted to try endings that aren't 0, stop. Look for the combinations you missed that have the 0 at the end. You are wasting chances if you try prices that end in something other than 0.

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-47): 81-86 (48.50%)
• What it would be by random chance if you follow the 0 rule and know the first digit of the car: 7/9 (77.78%)

Strategy

I don't need data for this game beyond the 0 rule. If you end all of your guesses with 0 and have even just a bit of a clue about the prices of things, you'll win every time. In fact, since at least season 32, every contestant who has ended all of their guesses in 0 has won this game. But I'll add one more thing that can help: the second prize has always been at least $500 since season 43. That can help you remove some combinations for the second prize.

Edited to add: If you want more detail besides "every prize ends in 0", check out this excellent post by RatRace10 at golden-road.net. You should read the whole thing, but I'll mention one point to whet your appetite: very rarely is the first prize $50 and very rarely does the second prize end in $x50. So if you see a 5 in the first two prizes, it's very likely not the tens digit.

The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Temptation

Temptation

Rules

A car is shown as is the first digit of the price of the car. Then four prizes and their prices are shown, one at a time. Each digit of the price of the car matches a digit of the corresponding prize's price; for example, the second digit of the car's price is a digit in the price of the first prize. The contestant must decide what they think the price of the car is from those prizes; they choose one at a time, but after all four prizes are revealed, the contestant may make any changes they wish. The contestant must then decide if they want to go for the car or keep the prizes shown and give up the opportunity to win the car. If they go for the car and are correct, they win the car and the four prizes; if they go for the car and are incorrect, they win nothing.

Random fact

Early in the show's history, there was a game called Double Digits that had sort of similar mechanics. It was played a total of five times. You can see a playing here:

(Jump ahead to the 1:50 mark to see the Double Digits playing.)

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-47): 20-154 (11.49%)
• What it would be by random chance assuming you never take the gifts: 1/16 (6.25%)

The correct digit to choose was...(seasons 40-47)

• The higher digit in the prize's price: 135 prizes (46.23%)
• The lower digit in the prize's price: 157 prizes (53.77%)
• The digit that appeared more frequently in the prize's price**: 106 prizes (47.11%)
• The digit that appeared less frequently in the prize's price**: 119 prizes (52.89%)

* Excluding the $549 prize used in season 40 (Correction: the prize I thought was $549 was actually $559. The data above has been updated. Thanks to Punchboard91 at golden-road.net for pointing that out!)

** Excluding prizes where the digits appeared equally often (such as $2,299 in cash.)

Strategy

Car pricing strategy

The last digit is almost always 5, and when it's not 5, it's 0. Since at least season 40, the prices of all the cars in this game have ended in 0 or 5; in seasons 46 and 47, one car had a price ending in 0 and all the others ended in 5. For digits 2-4, it's "know the price" territory.

Should you take the prizes or go for the car?

In order to decide if you should go for the car, you need to know two things:

1. The ratio (R) of the value of the car to you against the value of the prizes. For example, if the car is worth $18,000 to you and the prizes are worth $6,000, this ratio is $18,000/$6,000, or 3.
2. The probability (P) that you are right about the car.

Given those values, go for the car if and only if  P > 1/(R+1). For example, if R (the ratio) is 3, then go for the car if and only if the probability you have the car's price right is 1/(3+1) = 1/4 = 25% or greater.

The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Take Two

Take Two

Rules

Four prizes are shown as is a target price. The contestant must choose which two prizes whose prices, when added, equal that target price. The contestant gets two chances to come up with the two prizes.

Random fact

This game used to have a much plainer rectangular board. You can see a playing of it here:

(Jump to the 28:30 mark to see the Take Two playing.)

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-47): 73-64 (53.28%)
• What it would be by random chance: 1/3 (33.33%)

The correct two prizes to choose were...(seasons 40-47)

• The two cheapest prizes: 0 playings (0%)
• The cheapest and the second most expensive prizes: 1 playing (season 40) (1.45%)
• The cheapest and the most expensive prizes: 12 playings (17.39%)
• The second cheapest and second most expensive prizes: 4 playings (5.80%)
• The second cheapest and the most expensive prizes: 41 playings (59.42%)
• The two most expensive prizes: 11 playings (15.94%)

Strategy

The most expensive prize was part of the correct combination 64 out of 69 times from seasons 40-47. Further, the most expensive prize has been part of the correct combination in every single playing since season 44. So the strategy here is to find the most expensive prize and then find the prize that combines with it to get the target price.

The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Switcheroo

Switcheroo

Rules

A car is shown as are four small prizes. The prices of all 5 prizes are revealed with their 10s digit missing, and the 5 missing values are shown to the contestant. The contestant has 30 seconds to decide which number goes with which prize. They are shown how many they have correct; if they don't have all 5 correct, the contestant is given another 30 seconds to make changes if they so desire.

Random fact

When this game was played on the 1980s nighttime version of the show, it had different think music. Also, the set at the time didn't have a clock on it. You can see a playing here:

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-47): 37-143 (20.56%)
• What it would be by random chance: 31/150 (20.67%) (This assumes you make changes unless you get all 5 numbers right on the first try.)

The correct number to choose for the car was...(seasons 40-47)

• 1: 25 playings (33.33%)
• 2: 18 playings (24%)
• 3: 25 playings (33.33%)
• 4: 3 playings (4%) (all in season 47)
• 5: 0 playings (0%)
• 6: 4 playings (5.33%) (never more than once in a season)
• 7: 0 playings (0%)
• 8: 0 playings (0%)
• 9: 0 playings (0%)

Strategy

Choose a low number for the price of the car!!! It's almost always 1, 2, or 3, though they did sneak in some 4's in season 47. Also, the missing number is rarely the same as the digit to its left or right; that's only happened 7 times in the 75 playings from seasons 40-47. Beyond that, you should use process of elimination to figure out the correct digit for the car. To do this, figure out the prices of the small prizes first. Put those blocks in, and then put the block for the car's price last. As for whether to make changes or not after the first attempt, that's up to you; if you have three right, the numbers say you shouldn't change the price of the car since you have a 60% chance of that being right, but if you have two or fewer numbers right, you should change the price of the car. But that is of course assuming you placed the blocks randomly.

The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Switch?

Switch?

Rules

Two prizes are shown, each with a price. The contestant must decide if those prices are correct or if they need to be switched. If they decide correctly, they win both prizes.

Random fact

The music they play while switching the prices is the very end of the song they play during Switcheroo.

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-47): 350-192 (64.58%)
• What it would be by random chance: 1/2 (50%)

The correct decision was to...(seasons 40-47)

• Switch: 134 playings (58.26%)
• Not switch: 96 playings (41.74%)

Strategy

If this game is played for two trips, remember the trip rule: the trip farther from LA is more expensive. Otherwise, don't worry about the exact prices, instead, think of which prize you think is more expensive and go from there. If you really have no idea, go ahead and switch, as that's slightly more likely to be right (and, as a fan, I like hearing the music 😃.)

The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Swap Meet

Swap Meet

Rules

A prize is shown on-stage and three more are shown behind a curtain. If the contestant can choose which of the prizes behind the curtain has the same price as the prize on-stage, they win all four prizes.

Random fact

Swap Meet debuted on the first episode of the 20th season of the show. You can see it here:

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-47): 80-88 (47.62%)
• What it would be by random chance: 1/3 (33.33%)

The correct prize to choose was...(seasons 40-47)

• The left-most prize: 22 playings (29.73%)
• The middle prize: 29 playings (39.19%)
• The right-most prize: 23 playings (31.08%)
• The most expensive prize: 7 playings (9.46%)
• The middle-priced prize: 20 playings (27.03%)
• The cheapest prize: 47 playings (63.51%)

Strategy

If you know the prices, that's the best strategy here. But there's a very strong trend for the cheapest prize to be the correct one, so if you're not completely certain, pick the prize you think is the cheapest.

The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Stack the Deck

Stack the Deck

Rules

A car is shown as are seven numbers. Five of these make up the price of the car. Three pairs of grocery items are revealed along with one prices per pair. For each pair of items, the contestant must decide which grocery item has that price. If they guess correctly, they get to choose which digit of the car they want to reveal. After the grocery portion is finished, the contestant fills in the missing digits to complete the price of the car. If the price they have created is the price of the car, they win the car.

Random fact

This game may have the coolest reveal on the entire show, with the top of the prop flipping over to reveal the price of the car. You can see the debut playing here:

(Jump to the 9:00 mark to see the Stack the Deck playing)

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 35-47): 26-138 (15.85%)
• What it would be by random chance: 179/10280 (1.74%)
• By random chance but you know the first number and don't select it as a freebie: 229/2880 (7.95%)

The correct grocery item to choose was...

Seasons 40-46:

• The top item: 131 items (49.43%)
• The bottom item: 134 items (50.57%)

Season 47:

• The left item: 15 items (55.56%)
• The right item: 12 items (44.44%)

Seasons 43-47:

• The less expensive item: 111 items (71.15%)
• The more expensive item: 45 items (28.85%)

How often was each digit in the car price vs. being a fake? (seasons 40-47)

Digit    # times in car    # times fake

  0        16 (48.48%)      17 (51.52%)

  1        85 (93.41%)       6 (6.59%)

  2        59 (72.84%)      22 (27.16%)

  3        46 (63.89%)      26 (36.11%)

  4        51 (77.27%)      15 (22.73%)

  5        33 (58.93%)      23 (41.07%)

  6        47 (79.66%)      12 (20.34%)

  7        47 (64.38%)      26 (35.62%)

  8        53 (75.71%)      17 (24.29%)

  9        51 (64.56%)      28 (35.44%)

Strategy

Grocery pricing

It doesn't completely beat knowing the price, but pick the item you think is less expensive and you'll be right a large percentage of the time. 

Which places to pick in the car price

Go back to front. The last digit is the hardest to guess, so that should be the first one you ask for when you get a grocery item right. (And by the way, the last digit is almost never 0, 5, or 9, especially in recent seasons; season 47 in particular had 0 cars ending in any of those digits.) Then pick the second to last digit and then the third to last digit. The first two digits should be the easiest to ascertain, so leave those as the ones you need to guess.

Which numbers are in the car price

The 0 is wrong over half the time, the 5 is wrong 40% of the time and the 1 is almost always in the price, even in cars that start with a 2. Besides that, know the price of the car.

The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Squeeze Play

Squeeze Play

Rules

A prize is shown as is a price. That price has one too many digits in it. The first digit of the wrong price is the first digit of the actual price and the last digit of the wrong price is the last digit of the actual price.  The contestant must decide which of the middle digits doesn't belong; if they do so correctly, they win the prize.

Random fact

Bob Barker got to show off his kicking skills once when this game just wouldn't cooperate:

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-47): 233-329 (41.46%)
• What it would be by random chance:
• For four digit prizes: 1/3 (33.33%)
• For five digit prizes: 1/4 (25%)

Which digit was the correct one to remove? (seasons 40-47)

For four digit prizes

• The second digit: 72 playings (40.45%)
• The third digit: 79 playings (44.38%)
• The fourth digit: 27 playings (15.17%)

For five digit prizes

• The second digit: 23 playings (36.51%)
• The third digit: 19 playings (30.16%)
• The fourth digit: 16 playings (25.40%)
• The fifth digit: 5 playings (7.974%)

Strategy

There's a trend in this game in recent seasons, and that's that the earlier numbers (such as the second and third digits) are the ones to remove much more often than the later numbers. For example, in season 47, in four digit prizes, the second digit was the one to remove 10 times, the third digit was the one to remove 12 times, and the fourth digit was the one to remove 0 times (i.e. never.) For five digit prizes in season 47, it was even more pronounced: 6 times the second digit was the one to remove, 1 time the third digit was the one to remove, and it was never the case that either the fourth or fifth digit was the one to remove. This trend has been strong since season 42. Thus, whether the prize has four or five digits, you should strongly lean toward removing either the second or the third digit. Only remove the fourth or fifth digit if you're absolutely certain.

The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Spelling Bee

Spelling Bee

Rules

A car is shown as are three small prizes and a game board with 30 cards on it. In most playings, two of those cards have the word "car" on their back, 11 of them have a "C", 11 have an "A", and 6 have an "R." The contestant's goal is to choose cards that either spell out "C-A-R" or pick one of the cards with the word "car" on it. They can choose two cards for free, and can earn up to three more picks by correctly guessing the prices of the small prizes. For each small prize, if they guess the price within $10 above or below the actual price, they get another pick on the board. If they guess any small prize right on the nose, they immediately win all three small prizes and all three extra picks, even if they were more than $10 away on a previous prize. After the contestant has made all their selections, they can choose to play for the car or stop and take $1,000 per card they earned. If they play on, the cards are revealed one at a time; after each card is revealed, if the contestant hasn't yet won the car, they can choose to stop and take $1,000 per card that is yet to be revealed or continue playing.

Random fact

This game has been played perfectly before, meaning a contestant got a C, an A, an R, and both cards that had word "car" on them:

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-47): 79-87 (47.59%)
• What it would be by random chance, based on how many picks you have and assuming you never bail out:
• 2 picks: 19/145 (13.10%)
• 3 picks: 151/406 (37.19%)
• 4 picks: 1067/1827 (58.40%)
• 5 picks: 52363/71253 (73.48%)

Price ranges of each small prize (seasons 40-47)

• First prize: $10-$57
• Second prize: $10-$80
• Third prize: $16-$65

How often each ordering of the small prizes' prices was correct (seasons 40-47)

The table below refers to ordering the small prizes by price. For example, "123" means the first prize was the cheapest, the second prize was the middle price, and the third prize was the most expensive. "231" means the first prize was the middle price, the second prize was the most expensive, and the third prize was the cheapest.

• 123: 3 playings (4.48%)
• 132: 28 playings (41.79%)
• 213: 13 playings (19.40%)
• 231: 14 playings (20.90%)
• 312: 6 playings (8.96%)
• 321: 3 playings (4.48%)

How often each card had each option (seasons 40-47)

Card  # picks  CAR   C   A   R

1         8     1    3   0   4

2         6     0    4   0   2

3         9     0    5   0   4

4        11     0    4   3   4

5         9     1    3   0   5

6         3     0    2   0   1

7        21     0   10  11   0

8         7     1    3   1   2

9        13     0    3   9   1

10        6     1    3   1   1

11       14     4    3   6   1

12       13     0    8   4   1

13        3     0    1   2   0

14        4     0    1   1   2

15       10     1    2   6   1

16        5     0    2   1   2

17        7     0    3   3   1

18        6     2    1   2   1

19       11     1    7   1   2

20        5     0    2   2   1

21        5     1    3   1   0

22        5     0    1   4   0

23       19     1    9   8   1

24        9     3    2   1   3

25        6     0    4   2   0

26        7     0    3   1   3

27        3     0    2   1   0

28        5     1    0   0   4

29        4     1    0   2   1

30        4     1    1   1   1

Note: Bold means a CAR card was found behind that number at least once.

Strategy

Part 1: Small prize pricing

There's not much that's foolproof here, but your guesses should be never be less than $20 for the small prize. They've never used a small prize less than $10 (at least since season 40) and I doubt they ever will. On the high side, they've never used a prize greater than $80, but that's not to to say they can't stretch that some day. Do note that for the ordering of the prices, the "132" combination comes up much more often than any other combination, so if you're not sure, you should assume that the first prize is the cheapest, the middle prize is the most expensive, and the last prize is between those two. That's far from guaranteed, though, so use that only if you're not at all sure of the prices.

Also, as several people at golden-road.net pointed out, small prizes in Spelling Bee rarely end in 0 or 5. To be more specific, as AvsFan pointed out, just 3.5% of small prizes in the last 5 seasons ended in one of those digits--check out his post with a graph of the various endings. This means your guess should never end in 0 or 5 unless you're certain of the price. This is for two reasons:

1. You're more likely to get the price exactly right with an non-0 or 5 ending.
2. Even if you're not exactly right, you're "wasting" fewer numbers in the +/- $10 range. For example, if you guess $20 for the prize, your range is $10 to $30 inclusive, which is a total of 21 possible prices when you include both endpoints. But since the prize is very unlikely to end in 0 or 5, the values 10, 15, 20, 25, and 30 are "wasted", so you really only have 16 possible prices. But if you guess $19 for the prize, your range is $19 to $39. You've only wasted four numbers now--20, 25, 30, and 35. So you have 17 possible prices instead of 16.

Part 2: Which cards to pick

• Do NOT pick #7!! It's the most often picked, but when it's been picked, it's never had the CAR card or even the R.
• Interestingly enough, though, #11 has frequently had the CAR card, as has #24. So those should be your two free picks.
• Beyond that, you should lean towards #s 1-5. That's where the R's are most frequently hidden.

Part 3: Should you bail out?

As I've mentioned in other articles, it depends on how much the car is worth to you. Do you plan to sell it? Then its value is whatever you can sell it for. If you plan to keep it, then it's worth the actual price. If you plan to turn it down, then its value is $0 and you should of course always bail out. Once you've decided that, then here's a chart that tells you mathematically when you should play the game and when you should bail out:

At the start of the game

# of picks   Minimum value of the car

  earned      to you to not bail out

    2               $15,264

    3                $8,067

    4                $6,850

    5                $6,804

If you have one pick left

# of cards already  Letters already    Minimum value of the car

    revealed           revealed        to you to not bail out

       1             Any of them              $14,500

       2            Just one letter           $14,000

       2               C and A                 $3,500

       2          C and R or A and R           $2,154

       3            Just one letter           $13,500

       3               C and A                 $3,375

       3          C and R or A and R           $2,077

       4            Just one letter           $13,000

       4               C and A                 $3,250

       4          C and R or A and R           $2,000

A couple of notes from the tables above:

• It would make the tables too big to include the "intermediate" values (e.g. if you've revealed two cards and have two left, should you keep playing?), but suffice it to say that if you have two or more cards left to reveal, it's never correct to bail out in the middle of the game if you didn't bail out at the beginning, unless you change your mind about how much the car is worth to you.
• If the value of the car to you is at least $15,264, then you should never bail out, period, even if you have just one card left and you need it to be a CAR card.
• Of course, these tables assume the value of each card is $1,000. They have played with higher value cards; if they do that again, you need to multiply the tables above by the amount in thousands of dollars each card is worth. For example, if each card is worth $5,000, multiply the above numbers by 5.

The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Side by Side

Side by Side

Rules

A prize is shown as are two pairs of numbers, with one pair on top of the other pair. The contestant must decide whether the pair on top must be slid to the left or to the right to form the correct price of the prize. They win the prize if they are correct.

Random fact

The US version of Side by Side debuted in 1994. The UK version of The Price is Right had a game called Side by Side many years before that, though it was played much differently than the US version. Here's a playing from 1989:

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-47): 207-112 (64.89%)
• What it would be by random chance: 1/2 (50%)

The correct direction to slide the top pair of numbers was...(seasons 40-47)

• To the left: 90 playings (44.33%)
• To the right: 113 playings (55.67%)

Of the two choices, the correct price was the...(seasons 40-47)

• Cheaper price: 107 playings (52.71%)
• More expensive price: 96 playings (47.29%)

Strategy

Mostly know the price, but if you see 99 as an option, you should strongly lean toward putting that as the first two digits of the prize's price. No prize in this game has ended in -99 since season 45.

The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Shopping Spree

Shopping Spree

Rules

Four prizes are shown as is a target price. The contestant must pick three prizes; if the sum of their prices is above the target price, they win all four prizes.

Random fact

I have nothing exciting to say about this game, so instead, enjoy this video of the Family Channel game show $hopping $pree from 1997:

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 32-47): 117-70 (62.57%)
• What it would be by random chance: 1/4 (25%)

Which prize was the cheapest? (seasons 40-47)

• The prize on the far left: 17 playings (20.73%)
• The second prize from the left: 24 playings (29.27%)
• The second prize from the right: 24 playings (29.27%)
• The prize on the far right: 17 playings (20.73%)

Strategy

Don't worry about identifying the cheapest prize right away; instead, just pick the most expensive prize each time. Usually, there's a prize or two that's obviously a good choice to pick. So choose that one or those two and then you can narrow down what you think the cheapest prize is from there, based on how much you have left to spend. If you're completely clueless about the prices, pick the endpoints (i.e. the prize on the far left or the far right), as they have been slightly more likely to not be the cheapest prize. But that's not a strong trend, so only use that as a last resort.

The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Shell Game

Shell Game

Rules

A prize is shown. Then four shells are shown, one of which hides a ball. Four small prizes are then shown, each with an incorrect price; the contestant must decide if the actual price of each item is higher or lower than the indicated price. For each item they get correct, they get to choose one of the shells; at the end of the game, if the ball is under one of the shells the contestant chose, they win. As a bonus, if they get all four correct, in addition to winning the main prize, they get to pick which shell they think the ball is under. If they are correct about that, they win a cash bonus equal to the value of the main prize.

Random fact

This game was the host to one of the most infamous (and one of the funniest) moments of cheating on the show:

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-47): 67-28 (70.53%)
• What it would be by random chance: 1/2 (50%)

The correct choice to make for each small prize was...(seasons 40-47)

• Higher: 99 prizes (56.25%)
• Lower: 77 prizes (43.75%)

How often was each combination of highers and lowers correct? (seasons 40-47)

• 4 Higher: 0 playings (0%)
• 3 Higher, 1 Lower: 15 playings (34.09%)
• 2 Higher, 2 Lower: 23 playings (52.27%)
• 1 Higher, 3 Lower: 6 playings (13.64%)
• 4 Lower: 0 playings (0%)

The ball was under which shell? (seasons 40-47)

• Shell #1 (the left-most shell): 8 playings (18.18%)
• Shell #2: 12 playings (27.27%)
• Shell #3: 14 playings (31.82%)
• Shell #4 (the right-most shell): 10 playings (22.73%)

Strategy

Part 1: Small Prizes

Mostly know the prices, though note it's never been the case that all four correct answers were higher nor were all four correct answers ever all lower (at least since season 39.) Also, there's a slight edge toward "higher," so if you're clueless, that can be your guess.

Part 2: Where to place the chips

This game inverts "pick the endpoints"--since season 40, the ball is more often in the center than at one of the edges. It's not a strong trend though, and given the fact that Drew (lightly) shuffles the shells before the game begins, the producers can't fully control where the ball is. So if you want to pick your lucky shells, go right ahead.

The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Secret X

Secret X

Rules

A main prize is shown and a 3x3 tic-tac-toe grid is revealed. One of the squares in the middle column has an "X" in it, but the contestant does not know which one. The contestant gets one X for free and can win two more by guessing prices of small prizes. After the contestant places their X's, the location of the secret X in the middle column is revealed. If the contestant has three X's in a row, including the secret X, they win the main prize.

Random fact

While this is rarely stated by Bob or Drew, the three X's in a row to win the game must include the secret X. The contestant cannot win by placing three X's all in the left-most column or three X's all in the right-most column.

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-47): 132-120 (52.38%)
• What it would be by random chance: 1/3 (33.33%) (This assumes the contestant doesn't do anything stupid, like put an X in the center row or place their first two X's in the same column.)

The correct guess for the small prize was...(seasons 40-47)

• The more expensive price: 70 prizes (35.71%)
• The cheaper price: 126 prizes (64.29%)

The secret X was in which square? (seasons 40-47)

• Top square: 38 playings (38.78%)
• Middle square: 51 playings (52.04%)
• Bottom square: 9 playings (9.18%)

Strategy

Part 1: Small prize pricing

As you can see, the cheaper price is right almost 2/3 of the time, so if you're not sure, go for that one.

Part 2: Where to place the X's

Part 2a: If not playing for a car

As you can see, the producers like putting the secret X in the middle and really don't like putting it at the bottom. So place the X's in this order: top left, bottom right, and top right. Of course, any ordering where you first cover the middle square, then cover the top square will work. Just whatever you do, don't place an X in the middle row--believe it or not, that has happened.

Part 2b: If playing for a car
As Flerbert419 at golden-road.net pointed out, of those 9 playings where the X was at the bottom, 6 came when the game was played for a car. In fact, of the 13 playings for a car from season 40-47, the X was at the top twice, in middle 5 times, and at the bottom 6 times. So if you're playing for a car, you should cover the bottom square first, then the middle. Start with the lower left, then the lower right, then either of the top corners.

The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Safe Crackers

Safe Crackers

Rules

Two prizes are shown, a main prize and a prize with three digits in the price. The contestant is given the three digits in the smaller prize's price; if they can arrange them correctly to form the price of the smaller prize, they win both prizes.

Random fact

This game has an unwritten rule: the price of the smaller prize ends in 0. This has been true in every playing of Safe Crackers since at least season 34.

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-47): 98-95 (50.78%)
• What it would be by random chance if you follow the 0 rule: 1/2 (50%)

The correct price to choose was...(seasons 40-47)

• The less expensive price: 32 playings (38.10%)
• The more expensive price: 52 playings (61.90%)

Strategy

Start by remembering the 0 rule in this game--that narrows it down to 50/50. Then if you're not sure of which price to choose, there are two things that can help you out here:

• The producers like to use the more expensive option. This means a price like $970 is more likely to be right than $790.
• Listen to the amount the entire prize package is worth and do some mental math estimates. If the prize package is worth $8,900 and your choices are $790 or $970, then the price of the main prize must be either about $8,100 or $7,900. Depending on the prize, $7,900 sounds a lot more like a price for a prize than $8,100, which would make $970 the more likely option.

The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Rat Race

Rat Race

Rules

3 main prizes are shown, usually including a car. Then 3 smaller prizes are shown. The contestant must guess the first prize to within $1 (above or below), the second prize to within $10 (above or below), and the third prize to within $100 (above or below). For each of those they get correct, they get to choose a mechanical rat out of the five on the track. Those rats then are released. If the contestant chose the rat that finished first, they win the largest main prize (again, usually the car); they chose the rat that finished second, they get the middle prize, and if they chose the rat the finished in third, they get the third prize.

Random fact

They once twice* played this game for cash instead of a car. You can see how the contestant did in one of those playings here:

* Thanks to TPIRfan#9821 at golden-road.net for the correction!

Win-loss record (seasons 38-47): 40-68 (37.04%)

Which lane contained the winning rat? (seasons 38-47)

Note: the following list only counts playings where the race was actually run.

• Lane #1 (the left most lane): 34 playings (32.38%)
• Lane #2: 18 playings (17.14%)
• Lane #3: 17 playings (16.19%)
• Lane #4: 15 playings (14.29%)
• Lane #5 (the right most lane): 21 playings (20.00%)

Which rat won? (seasons 38-47)

Note: the following list only counts playings where the race was actually run.

• Blue: 17 playings (16.19%)
• Green: 20 playings (19.05%)
• Orange: 26 playings (24.76%)
• Pink: 23 playings (21.90%)
• Yellow: 19 playings (18.10%)

What were the values of each of the prizes? (seasons 44*-47)

* I'm choosing season 44 to start with because before that season, they sometimes had second prizes worth less than $30.

• First prize: $1.49-$7.99
• Second prize: $40-$90
• Third prize: $110-$300

Strategy

Part 1: Prize pricing

• First prize: For the first prize, your guess should be between $2.49 and $6.99, inclusive. Of course it's possible they could expand the range of prices of the prize, but the $7.99 item they used in season 47 was a full $1 more than any other first prize they had ever used, so I doubt they'll expand much further any time soon. Beyond that range, know the price.
• Second prize: Your guess should be between $50 and $80 inclusive. Beyond that, know the price.
• Third prize: Guess $200. They have never used a third prize that was strictly less than $100 or strictly more than $300. 

Part 2: Which rats to pick

Pick the endpoints! As you can see, no color has a huge advantage, but one lane does. For whatever reason, the left most lane wins significantly more often than any other lane, so you should choose whatever rat is there. Then go for the right most lane. If you were good enough at pricing to have a third rat, choose your lucky color from the three rats in the middle.

The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Range Game

Range Game

Rules

A prize is shown as is a $600 range for that prize. The contestant chooses a $150 range inside that $600 range. If the range the contestant guesses for the prize contains the price of the prize, they win.

Random fact

The rangefinder is manually controlled by a stagehand. Usually that stagehand behaves, but not always...

Win-loss record (seasons 29-47)

• Actual (seasons 29-47): 212-189 (52.87%)
• What it would be by random chance: 1/4 (25%)

The price was how far from the bottom? (seasons 41*-47)

• $0-$149: 0 playings (0%)
• $150-$199: 3 playings (2.21%)
• $200-$249: 17 playings (12.50%)
• $250-$299: 54 playings (39.71%)
• $300-$349: 34 playings (25%)
• $350-$399: 18 playings (13.24%)
• $400-$449: 9 playings (6.62%)
• $450-$600: 1 playing (0.74%)

* I'm starting with season 41 because season 40 had some patterns that have not been repeated since--for example, the value of the prize was between $150 and $200 from the bottom of the range 12 times in that season.

The last two digits of the prize's value were...(seasons 41-47)

• Between 00 and 24: 31 playings (22.79%)
• Between 25 and 49: 29 playings (21.32%)
• Between 50 and 74: 40 playings (29.41%)
• Between 75 and 99: 46 playings (33.82%)

Strategy

Since no price is in the bottom $150, you should make sure the range moves up by $150 before you press the button. Beyond that, know the price, though if you're clueless, let the rangefinder move up $250 from the bottom before you press the button. There used to be a pattern where the last two digits were more frequently between 75 and 99 than the other options, but that has been changed in the last couple of seasons; in fact, there were only 3 playings in season 46 and 4 in season 47 where the last digits were in that range. Thus, a strategy like "make sure two multiples of $100 are covered by the range" is no longer any better than random chance.

The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Race Game

Race Game

Rules

Four prizes are shown as are four price tags. The contestant must match up the price tags to the corresponding prizes. The contestant is then shown how many they got correct; if they got fewer than 4, they get to make changes and try again. They keep going until they either run out of the allotted 45 seconds or get all 4 right.

Random fact

The show kicked off its 40th season by playing Race Game for four cars. Here's how it went:

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-47): 113-97 (53.81%)
• What it would be by random chance: N/24, where N is the number of unique solutions the contestant can try in 45 seconds.

Which combinations were correct? (seasons 40-47)

• 1234: 7 playings (8.05%)
• 1243: 5 playings (5.75%)
• 1324: 0 playings (0%)
• 1342: 2 playings (2.30%)
• 1423: 0 playings (0%)
• 1432: 3 playings (3.45%)
• 2134: 8 playings (9.20%)
• 2143: 5 playings (5.75%)
• 2314: 8 playings (9.20%)
• 2341: 2 playings (2.30%)
• 2413: 3 playings (3.45%)
• 2431: 4 playings (4.60%)
• 3124: 4 playings (4.60%)
• 3142: 0 playings (0%)
• 3214: 3 playings (3.45%)
• 3241: 2 playings (2.30%)
• 3412: 0 playings (0%)
• 3421: 4 playings (4.60%)
• 4123: 4 playings (4.60%)
• 4132: 4 playings (4.60%)
• 4213: 4 playings (4.60%)
• 4231: 2 playings (2.30%)
• 4312: 7 playings (8.05%)
• 4321: 6 playings (6.90%)

The way to read the above table is that "1" means the cheapest prize, "2" means the second cheapest prize, "3" means the second most expensive prize, and "4" means the most expensive prize. So 2143 means the prize on the left was the second cheapest, the second prize from the left was the cheapest, the third prize was the most expensive, and the prize on the far right was the second most expensive.

Strategy

DO NOT LOOK AT THE AUDIENCE!!!

You simply do not have time. Your goal is to get 4 tries in the 45 seconds (no one has had more than 4 attempts since at least season 29.) Looking at the audience wastes valuable time. So this really comes down to a "know the prices" game--unfortunately, there's no mathematically clever way to guarantee a win in just 4 tries. Do try to keep track of your previous guesses--they can help you narrow down what prices go where. Also note that if you get two right, switch two, and you end up with none right, you know the correct answer: switch the two back that you just switched, and then switch the other two. For example, let's say you try 4132 and you get two right. You then switch the first two to get 1432 and have none right. Then you know the correct answer must be 4123--switch the first two back and the switch the last two.

The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Push Over

Push Over

Rules

A prize is shown as is a set of blocks with numbers on them. Somewhere in that set is the four or five digits of the price of the prize. If the contestant selects the price of the prize correctly, they win.

Random fact

When Push Over first debuted, it had a red and yellow set instead of the blue and yellow set we have now. Here's the debut playing:

Win-loss rate

• Actual (seasons 29-47): 254-256 (49.80%)
• What it would be by random chance: 1/6 (16.67%) for four digit prizes or 1/5 (20%) for five digit prizes. Of course, this assumes all possible prices are equally likely, which is almost always bogus.

Which price was correct? (seasons 40-47)

Four digit prizes

• x x x x x [X X X X] was right: 0 playings (0%)
• x x x x [X X X X] x was right: 36 playings (21.43%)
• x x x [X X X X] x x was right: 51 playings (30.36%)
• x x [X X X X] x x x was right: 38 playings (22.62%)
• x [X X X X] x x x x was right: 38 playings (22.62%)
• [X X X X] x x x x x was right: 5 playings (2.98%)

Five digit prizes

• x x x x [X X X X X] was right: 0 playings (0%)
• x x x [X X X X X] x was right: 23 playings (50%)
• x x [X X X X X] x x was right: 16 playings (34.78%)
• x [X X X X X] x x x was right: 5 playings (10.87%)
• [X X X X X] x x x x was right: 2 playings (4.35%)

Strategy

Mostly know the price, but a couple of things can help you here:

1. The correct price is never the first one. You must always push at least one block over.
2. Similarly, the very last possible price is rarely correct. Only select that one if you're sure of it.
3. There hasn't been a prize worth less than $5,000 in this game since the end of season 41. So any prices less than $5,000 can be immediately thrown out.
4. Since season 44, there haven't been more than 3 prizes in a season in this game that ended in a 5 or a 0. So if you're not sure, throw those prices out. However, prizes that end in 9 do come up with reasonable frequency, so don't throw those out.

The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Punch a Bunch

Punch a Bunch

Rules

Four small prizes are shown, each with an incorrect price. The contestant must decide if the actual price is higher or lower than the price shown. However many they get correct, they get that many punches on the punch board. The contestant then punches that number of holes. One at a time, Drew reveals how much each punch was worth; the contestant can choose to throw that money away and keep playing or quit with the amount of money shown. The contestant wins whichever amount of money they keep, or the last amount of money revealed if they played until their last punch.

Random fact

When this game first debuted, it was played much differently. You can see an example here:

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-47): 22-336 (6.15%)
  (Note: it only counts as a win if the top prize, $25,000, is won.)
• What it would be by random chance: 1/25 (4%)

The correct choice for the small prizes was...(seasons 40-47)

• Higher: 239 prizes (43.61%)
• Lower: 309 prizes (56.39%)

How often was each combination of highers and lowers correct? (seasons 40-47)

• 4 Higher: 0 playings (0%)
• 3 Higher, 1 Lower: 13 playings (9.49%)
• 2 Higher, 2 Lower: 77 playings (56.20%)
• 1 Higher, 3 Lower: 47 playings (34.31%)
• 4 Lower: 0 playings (0%)

Stats for each hole (seasons 40-47)

The way to read the following table is for each hole, the first line is how often it contained $10,000 or more, and the second line is how much money it contained on average. For example, the top left corner reads "0/18"--this means that in 18 punches, it contained $10,000 or more 0 times. The average of all the values that were found in that hole was $1,302. Note this excludes the playing where a dream car was offered.

 0/18   0/5    0/11   0/10    0/6   0/7    0/8    0/10   0/5   0/14

$1302  $2200  $1736  $1450   $792  $1121  $1813  $1125  $2350 $1686

 1/5    0/8    1/17   1/13   0/12   0/12   0/9    0/20   0/14   0/4

$2900  $1344  $3059  $1308   $583   $588  $1122  $1183  $2264  $563

 0/3    0/11    0/9   1/10   0/27   0/14   0/11   2/12   0/9    0/0

$1083   $714  $1889  $1950  $1535  $1682  $1114  $3600  $1667   N/A

 0/2    0/11   0/16    0/6   1/8    0/9    0/7     0/9   0/15   1/3

$1375   $632   $916   $767  $4169  $1317  $2571   $761  $1130 $3533 

 0/6    1/10   0/6     0/3    0/2   0/5    0/4    1/10    0/8  0/11

$625   $1345  $1958  $1867   $175  $3700   $588  $2475   $650  $782

Bold means $10,000 or more was found there at least once.

Strategy

Part 1: Small prize pricing

Know the prices. They don't make this part hard because they want people to punch the board. Do note that it's never been all four prices are higher or all four prices are lower, so if the first three have the same answer, you know the fourth will be the opposite answer.

Part 2: Which holes to punch?

DON'T PUNCH THE CORNERS!! The producers know that people like to punch the corners so they never place the big money there--you can see none of the corners has had the big cash since season 40. (To be fair, the dream car was in the top right corner; I excluded that playing because the car replaced a $100 slip. I don't know if the producers placed all the slips, then replaced a $100 they had put in the top right corner with the car or if they intentionally placed the car in that spot.) Otherwise, it's really a crapshoot. I personally would go for the 4th through 7th spots on the bottom row, because very few people punch those spots. If you want to try something no one else has, punch the far right spot in the middle row--no one has tried that since season 39 at least.

Part 3: Should you continue?

The naive analysis would simply be to look at the average amount on the board, which is $2,260 $2,060 (thanks to TPIRfan#9821 for the correction!), and say that if you have more than that you should stop. So that analysis would state that if you get $2,500 or more, stop, $1,000 or less, and you should continue. I'm going to go a little deeper than that, though. Here's another table...

If you   # of picks     Probability of all other picks being

 have       left        strictly less than what you have now

$250         1                        10.20%

$250         2                         0.85%

$250         3                         0.054%

$500         1                        30.61%

$500         2                         8.93%

$500         3                         2.47%

$1,000       1                        51.02%

$1,000       2                        25.51%

$1,000       3                        12.48%

$2,500       1                        71.43%

$2,500       2                        50.60%

$2,500       3                        35.52%

$5,000       1                        87.76%

$5,000       2                        76.79%

$5,000       3                        66.98%

$10,000      1                        95.92%

$10,000      2                        91.92%

$10,000      3                        88.01%

Note: this table assumes that the amount you currently have is the one and only punch you've taken so far. It doesn't change things drastically if you remove that assumption. 

As you can see, I've highlighted the rows where continuing would mean that you'd lose money more likely than not. Here's that strategy in a simple bullet list:

• If you have $500 or less, continue.
• If you have $1,000, stop if and only if you have exactly 1 pick left.
• If you have $2,500, stop if and only if you have 1 or 2 picks left. If you have 3, continue.
• If you have $5,000 or more, stop. Period. (Yes, I know of the guy in the 1990s who threw away $5,000 when the top prize was $10,000, and then managed to get the $10,000. That's so incredibly unlikely you should not follow suit.)