The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Cliff Hangers

Cliff Hangers

Rules

A large prize is shown. Then three small prizes are shown and described. The contestant guesses the price of each of the small prizes. The difference between the contestant's guess and the actual price is calculated; the difference is considered positive whether the contestant's guess was too high or too low. If the sum of those three differences is less than or equal to $25, the contestant wins the large prize.

Random fact #1

In spite of how easy this game is, people have lost it in spectacular fashion. See how Bob handled one of those cases here:

Random fact #2

The song this game uses is called "On the Franches Mountains" and comes from a collection of Swiss Mountain music. You can hear the whole thing here:

Win-loss record (seasons 29-46): 257-112 (69.65%)

Pricing trends for the three prizes (seasons 40-46)

The following data is courtesy of AvsFan at golden-road.net. Thanks so much!!

• Average price for prize #1: $21.09
• Median price for prize #1: $20
• Average price for prize #2: $32.05
• Median price for prize #2: $32
• Average price for prize #3: $43.24
• Median price for prize #3: $43
• Average difference, SP #2 and SP #1: $10.89
• Average difference, SP #3 and SP #2: $11.19

Strategy

20-30-40! No need to bore you with a lot of stats here. The guesses of $20, $30, and $40 (in that order) would have won this game every single time except twice in the last 15 years. In fact, on the "super fan" show they did, the producers lampshaded this fact by making the prizes exactly $20, $30, and $40. There are only two exceptions I could find: one had prizes of $10, $20, and $30, and the $10 prize was a Libman mop that had been on the show quite a few times. The other was a playing from Big Money Week that used different rules; I'll cover that case below. So unless the first item is a Libman mop or it's Big Money Week, guess $20, $30, and $40, and you'll win every time. 

Big Money Week note: There have been two times during Big Money Week when they played Cliff Hangers such that the contestant got $10,000 per step the mountain climber didn't climb. For example, if you're off by a total of $15 between the three items, you win (25-15)*$10,000 = $100,000. They're not afraid to break the 20-30-40 rule here, so if they're giving you $10,000 per step you survive by, your guesses should most likely be $5 to $10 higher than 20-30-40, though it depends on the exact prizes. Note this exception only applies when they play Cliff Hangers during Big Money Week for $10,000 per unclimbed step. Nowadays, they usually play Cliff Hangers during Big Money Week for a flat $20,000. If that's the prize you're playing for, 20-30-40 applies.

The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Check-Out

Check-Out

Rules

A prize is shown as are 5 grocery products. The contestant guesses the price of each grocery item. If the total of the contestant's guesses is within $2 of the actual total price of the grocery items, they win the prize. It doesn't matter if the contestant's total is above or below the actual total; they win if they are within $2 either way.

Random fact

This game used to have the coolest calculator ever. You can see a playing with it here:

Win-Loss record (seasons 29-46): 75-114 (39.68%)

Correlation between the grocery total and the value of the main prize (seasons 40-46)

• Overall: 0.11
• When played for a prize over $15,000 (such as a car or a lot of cash): 0.07
• When played for a prize less than $15,000: 0.04

Correlation is sometimes known as the R-squared value. The above simply means this: the total of the grocery items has nothing to do with the prize's value. In other words, a higher valued prize doesn't mean the total of the grocery items is any higher or lower than usual.

Bar graph of the grocery totals (seasons 40-46)

Totals that would have won the game the most often (seasons 40-46)

Note: All ranges below are inclusive.

• $19.75-$19.80: 36 playings (48.65%)
• $18.25-$18.34, $19.36-$19.45, $19.65-$19.74, and $19.81-$19.85: 35 playings each (47.30%)
• $18.35, $18.41-$18.44, $18.96-$19.15, $19.31-$19.35, and $19.46-$19.64: 34 playings each (45.95%)

Strategy

Nothing beats knowing the prices of the grocery items, but there are some key points that can help you here:

• You can ignore the price of the main prize as the grocery total has nothing to do with the prize value.
• Only the total counts. So if you think you were way under on one item, feel free to go way over on another item to make up for it.
• If you're not sure about each individual item but have an idea what the total should be, aim for that total. For example, if you think the total of the items is about $20, guess $4 for each item.
• If you're completely clueless, aim for a total of $19.75, as that total has been a winning total more often than contestants have actually won the game over the years. In fact, if you want to totally troll the audience and the staff but still quite possibly win, go ahead and price the first item at $19.71 and the other items at 1 penny each. If you thought Philadelphia booed loudly, they got nothing on what the audience will do to you when you price candy at $19.71. You have my full permission to then stick your tongue out at them when you win with this strategy. (I should note I spent the first 23 years of my life in the Philadelphia area before anyone complains I'm stereotyping a region I know nothing about.)

The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Check Game

Check Game

CAUTION: The following guide was written for seasons 43-47, when the range was $7,000 to $8,000. The range was upped to $8,000 to $9,000 in season 48, so it remains to be seen how the strategy of this game will play out. In other words, you should use this article very cautiously or possibly ignore it entirely, with one exception: all prizes will still be at least $5,000, so don't write the check for more than $3,000.

Rules

A prize is shown as is a blank check. The contestant must write an amount of money on the check so that the amount of the check plus the price of the prize totals between $7,000 and $8,000, inclusive. (EDIT: this was upped to $8,000 to $9,000 in season 48.) If they do, they win the prize and cash in the amount of the check.

Random fact

For whatever reason, this game attracts way more than its fair share of clueless contestants. Here's one example:

Win-loss record (seasons 29-46): 60-94 (38.96%)

Number of prizes that cost...(seasons 43-47)

• Between $5,000 and $5,999, inclusive: 35 (74.47%)
• Between $6,000 and $6,999, inclusive: 12 (25.53%)
• Less than $5,000 or more than $6,999: 0 (0%)

If you wrote the check for X, how often would you have won? (seasons 43-47)

• $400 or below: 0 playings (0%)
• $500: 1 playing (2.13%)
• $600: 2 playings (4.26%)
• $700: 3 playings (6.38%)
• $800: 5 playings (10.64%)
• $900: 7 playings (14.89%)
• $1,000: 12 playings (25.53%)
• $1,100: 16 playings (34.04%)
• $1,200: 16 playings (34.04%)
• $1,300: 22 playings (46.81%)
• $1,400: 24 playings (51.06%)
• $1,500: 28 playings (59.57%)
• $1,600: 32 playings (68.09%)
• $1,700: 33 playings (70.21%)
• $1,800: 34 playings (72.34%)
• $1,900: 36 playings (76.60%)
• $2,000: 35 playings (74.47%)
• $2,100: 31 playings (65.96%)
• $2,200: 31 playings (65.96%)
• $2,300: 26 playings (55.32%)
• $2,400: 23 playings (48.94%)
• $2,500: 18 playings (38.30%)
• $2,600: 13 playings (27.66%)
• $2,700: 11 playings (23.40%)
• $2,800: 8 playings (17.02%)
• $2,900: 4 playings (8.51%)
• $3,000 or more: 0 playings (0%)

Strategy

Don't write the check for too much. The winning range was upped to $7,000 to $8,000 in season 37. Since then, including season 47, the record of this game has been 25-45 (31.25%). Of those 45 losses, 8 were by writing the check for too little and 37 of those losses were by writing the check for too much. Since the prizes they use in this game are now all between $5,000 and $6,999, there are only three check values you need to remember:

• Write the check for $1,000 if you think the first digit of the prize is 6.
• Write the check for $2,000 if you think the first digit of the prize is 5.
• If you're not sure, split the difference and write the check for $1,500.

To be clear: under no circumstance should you write the check for more than $2,000. Yes, sometimes amounts more than $2,000 will win the prize. However, in all those cases, due to the fact that no prize is less than $5,000, a check for $2,000 will also win the prize, and you lessen the risk of going over by capping your check at $2,000. And don't be afraid to write it for $1,000--with each passing season, the number of $6,000 prizes is getting closer and closer to the number of $5,000 prizes.

The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Card Game

Card Game

Rules

A car is shown. The contestant starts by drawing a card from a deck of cards showing different values between $1,000 and $5,000; whatever they draw is how close they must come to the actual retail price of the car without going over. They then start with a bid of $15,000 (except if playing for a luxury car) and draw cards from a standard deck of 52 playing cards. All cards except aces are worth their face value times $100 (2's are worth $200, 9's are worth $900, face cards are worth $1,000), and the worth of each card drawn is added to the contestant's bid. If the contestant draws an ace, they may make it any positive number they want, or they can tell Drew what they want their bid to be. The contestant may stop at any time, including before drawing any cards. Once the contestant stops, the price of the car is revealed, and if the contestant was within the range without going over, they win the car.

EDIT: As Guint at golden-road.net pointed out, as of the 2014 refurbishment, you can no longer save an ace. You must use it immediately.

Random fact

This game was out of the rotation for almost 3 years (most of season 40, all of season 41, and most of season 42) while it was being refurbished. All stats below are from the post-refurbishment era, and they exclude the two luxury cars Card Game was played for in season 43 (both of which were lost.)

Win-loss record (seasons 42-46): 37-46 (45.68%)

What range card was where? (seasons 42-46)

  Card  # picks # reveals $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $5,000  Avg.

1 (left)    3       12       2      1      2      7   $3,750

   2       16       21       3      6      9      3   $2,714

   3       25       31      11     15      2      3   $2,000

   4       18       25       7     10      6      2   $2,200

   5       23       36      19      4     12      1   $1,889

   6        8       23       5      5      8      5   $2,783

7 (right)   4       16       3      2      8      3   $2,875

I owe a serious debt of gratitude to TPIRfan#9821 at golden-road.net for going to YouTube, watching every Card Game playing they could find since the refurbishment, and coming up with the above table for which range card was where in the range deck. (If you're curious how the # of reveals is larger than the # of picks, it's because sometimes Drew shows the whole range deck after the contestant makes their choice to prove it's fair.) I also should give credit to Flerbert419 at golden-road.net for pointing out the range deck isn't shuffled and thus we should look at that deck for any trends.

Stats per range...

Range   W-L    W-L %  Avg. diff.*  # overbids

$1,000  2-20   9.09%    $1225           6

$2,000 12-14  46.15%    $1618           4

$3,000 18-12  60.00%    $1401           6

$5,000  5-0  100.00%    $2515           0

* Average difference between the car and the contestant's final bid.

Stats per range if we take out the overbids...

Range   W-L    W-L %   Avg. diff.

$1,000  2-14  12.50%     $2297           

$2,000 12-10  46.15%     $1967           

$3,000 18-6   54.55%     $2255           

$5,000  5-0  100.00%     $2515 

Bar graphs of the contestant's guesses and the actual prices of the car...

(Note: while the second bar graph above shows that no non-luxury cars over $24,000 were used in Card Game up to and including season 46, they have used a couple of $24,000+ cars in season 47.)

Strategy

Part 1: Drawing a range card.
As you can see by the table above, "pick the endpoints" very much applies here. Choose the card either on the far left or the far right of the range deck and you're much more likely to have a $5,000 range.

Part 2: Bidding on the car
I admit I went into this thinking contestants constantly way underbid on the car, and that turned out to be wrong. I'm happy to see that! But as for an actual strategy, the numbers don't present any patterns that I can see other than "know the price." (EDIT: As Guint pointed out at golden-road.net, there hasn't been a car in this game worth less than $20,000 since 4/13/18. So if your bid is $19,000 or less, you should absolutely keep drawing.) Here are a couple of things that can help, though:

1. As soon as you see the stagehands wheel out Card Game, think about what you think the price of the car is, and stick to it. Then set your desired bid to be that price minus 1/2 the range. For example, if you think the price is $23,000 and the range is $1,000, set your bid to $23,000-1/2*$1,000 = $22,500. I say you should drop by 1/2 the range in case the price you're thinking of is below the price of the car.
2. The temptation in this game is to stop too early because you feel like you just can't keep drawing. But if you draw nothing but 2s and 3s, you need to keep drawing! If you have a specific price in mind you're targeting (see point #1), you're much less likely to fall for the temptation of stopping because it just feels wrong to keep going.
3. If you draw an ace, use it immediately and stop the game. If you followed point #1 above, you already have a price in mind you want to stop at. You gain nothing by waiting to use an ace, and you certainly gain nothing by using the ace to be a specific amount and then continuing to draw.

The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Bullseye

Bullseye

Rules

A prize is shown. Then 5 grocery items are shown. The contestant must pick one of those grocery items and state how many of that item it would take to get between $10 and $12. If they are correct, they win the prize. If they are wrong but the total is below $10, they get a mark on the board. If they are wrong and total is above $12, they do not get a mark. The contestant gets to choose 3 products to try to win. If they have failed to win after 3 products, there is still a chance, as there is a hidden bullseye behind one of the 5 products. If the contestant chose that product during the game and they have a mark on the board from their guess on that product (i.e. their total for that product was less than $10), they win.

Random fact

When the show first debuted, there was a game called Bullseye that was nothing like this one. Instead, a prize was shown and the contestant had to guess the price. Bob would say "higher" or "lower" depending on whether the actual price was higher or lower. The contestant would guess again. They had a total of 7 guesses to get the price right. That game has the distinction of being the only game ever played on the show that was never won (excluding one-offs, like crossover games from Let's Make a Deal.) Here's a playing:

Win-loss rate (seasons 29-46): 159-42 (79.10%)

The contestant won the game by...

• Getting between $10 and $12: 126 times (79.25% of all wins)
• Finding the hidden bullseye: 33 times (20.75% of all wins)

Hidden bullseye was behind product #...: 

As they don't show where the hidden bullseye is if you win by getting between $10 and $12, I don't have enough data on that to make it meaningful.

How many do you need to get between $10 and $12 of an item?

Item price   # needed

$1.00-$1.20     10

$1.12-$1.33      9

$1.25-$1.50      8

$1.43-$1.71      7

$1.67-$2.00      6

$2.00-$2.40      5

$2.50-$3.00      4

$3.34-$4.00      3

$5.00-$6.00      2

Strategy

It's mostly "know the prices." However, if you want a 60% chance of winning, just randomly pick 3 items and guess 2 of them. (There's never been an item over $6 in the history of the game, so you don't have to worry about going over if you choose 2.) In fact, there's often a greater than 60% chance of winning if you do that because there's usually an item that costs between $5 & $6. My other advice is if you're not sure whether to pick N of an item or N+1 of that item, pick N. (For example, if you're debating between 3 and 4, choose 3.) If you pick too few of an item, you have a chance to win with the hidden bullseye, but if you pick too many, you don't get that chance. That said, this is a game that the producers don't usually try to trap you with, so go with your gut and you should have no problem.

The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Bonus Game

Bonus Game

Rules

A bonus prize is shown as is a board with 4 "windows". Then four small prizes are shown, one at a time, and an incorrect price is shown for each of the four small prizes. The contestant must correctly guess if the actual retail price of each small prize is higher or lower than the shown price. If they are correct, they get to "claim" that window. After the pricing for all four small prizes is complete, it is revealed which window the bonus is in. If the contestant claimed that window (i.e. if they correctly guessed higher/lower for that small prize), they win.

Random fact

This was the second game ever played on the show. You can see the full first episode here: 

(This is the same video I posted on the Any Number page.)

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-46): 103-43 (70.55%)
• What it would be by random chance: 1/2 (50%)

The bonus was associated with small prize...

• #1 (top window): 37 playings (25.34%)
• #2: 42 playings (28.77%)
• #3: 40 playings (27.40%)
• #4 (bottom window): 27 playings (18.49%)

Compared to the price shown, the actual price of the small prize was...

• Higher: 317 small prizes (54.28%)
• Lower: 267 small prizes (45.72%)

Strategy

Know the prices of the small prizes. You don't get to pick which window you think the bonus will appear in, so it doesn't matter that the bottom window is fairly infrequently the one with the bonus. And the fact that "higher" is right 54.28% of the time isn't far enough from 50/50 to suggest that you should pick that in general. Thus, this is a "know the prices" game.

The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Bonkers

Bonkers

Rules

A prize is shown. A 4 digit price is shown; none of the digits in the price is correct. The contestant has 4 paddles they must place above or below each of the 4 digits to indicate whether they think the digit in the price of the prize is higher or lower than the digit shown. After they place the paddles, they press a button and a sound indicates whether they are right or wrong. If they are right, they win the prize; if they are wrong, they can make changes. The contestant has 30 seconds to make as many guesses as they can.

Random fact

The button the contestant pushes to find out if they are right isn't connected to anything. There's someone backstage watching the locations of the paddles and they manually play the "wrong" or "right" sound when they see the contestant press the button.

Correction: That button used to be not connected to anything. Now it is. There's still a person that controls whether the sound played is the "right" or "wrong" sound, but since season 42, the button now automatically triggers the playing of whichever sound is selected. Thanks to Axl, jhc2010, and SteveGavazzi at golden-road.net for pointing this out!

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-46): 111-135 (45.12%)
• What it would be by random chance: N/16, where N is the number of unique guesses the contestant makes in the 30 seconds.

In order to win, the contestant had to place...

• All 4 paddles in the "higher" position: 0 playings (0%)
• Exactly 3 paddles in the "higher" position: 64 (26.02%)
• Exactly 2 paddles in the "higher" position: 98 (39.84%)
• Exactly 1 paddle in the "higher" position: 81 (32.93%)
• All 4 paddles in the "lower" position: 2 (0.81%)
• The paddles in unknown positions because the prize's price wasn't revealed: 1 (0.41%)

Strategy

There is one way many people play this game that drives me, well, bonkers. So everyone, repeat after me: do not look at the audience. I repeat: do NOT look at the audience. One more time:

DO NOT LOOK AT THE AUDIENCE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Got it? You only have 30 seconds and you simply don't have time to decode whatever it is your friend is trying to say. Besides, do you really think your friend knows that the trip to Germany has a price that ends in a 2 rather than a 7? Instead, you need to try as many combinations as possible. The record for most combinations ever tried is 9, which has happened once and was a win; the record for most combinations tried in a loss is 8, which has happened 8 times. Guess what? You can guarantee a win if you know the first digit of the price of the prize and you make 8 attempts! Here are all 8 possible combinations for the last 3 digits:

LLL

LLH

LHL

LHH

HLL

HLH

HHL

HHH

L is "lower" and H is "higher." Those are all the possible combinations for the last 3 digits, so if you know the first digit of the prize, or at least know the first digit in the price of the prize is higher or lower than the number shown in the incorrect price, you should win this game every single time. Thus, the idea is to figure out the first digit while George is describing the prize, put the paddle for that in its correct position when the game starts and leave it there, and then try the 8 combinations above for the last three digits.

(Side note: if you're a math geek, you can think of the above combinations as going through the numbers 0-7 in binary. Think of 0 as "L" and 1 as "H.")

Addendum: "Go with the odds" recent trend. After I wrote this Bonkers guide but before I posted it, someone posted on golden-road.net about a new pattern emerging in this game. It's simply this: go with the odds. If the wrong digit is 0-4, go higher. If the wrong digit is 6-9, go lower. If it's 5, then it could be either. For example, if the wrong price is 4753, it should take at most two attempts: HLHH and HLLH. This is a recent trend:

Season 47: This was always true for every digit (up to June 16 at least).
Season 46: This was always true for every digit except the first. There were times the wrong first digit was 6 or 7 and the actual first digit was 8 or 9. But the pattern held for digits 2-4 in every playing.
Season 45: This was false plenty of times.

So this may be a new unwritten rule or it may be a coincidence in the last season or two. I personally would go for the "try every combination" tactic myself, but it's worth continuing to look over the next year or two to see if this continues to be the case.