The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Pocket Change

Pocket Change

Rules

A car is shown as are 6 numbers. 5 of those numbers are in the price of the car and the 6th number is a fake. The first digit of the car is shown to the contestant and they are given a slip worth 25 cents. The car has a price tag in front of it that shows it costs 25 cents at that moment. The contestant guesses what they think the next number is based on the remaining digits. If they are wrong, the price of the car goes up by 25 cents; if they are right, they get to take a card off the board. That card will be an amount of money worth anywhere from nothing to $2. At the end of the game, if the amount the contestant has accumulated through envelopes is greater than or equal to the price of the car, the contestant wins the car.

Random fact

In early playings of this game, In the first playing of this game, the contestant was not given the first number for free. You can see an example here:

(Thanks to SteveGavazzi at golden-road.net for pointing out this rule was in effect for the first playing only!)

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 33-47): 83-97 (46.11%)
• What it would be by random chance: 239351/581400 (41.17%)

For each digit, how often was it in the car vs. being a fake? (seasons 40-47)

Note: the following table excludes the first digit of the car's price.

          # times       # times in      # times it

Digit     on board      car price       was the fake

  0          24         23 (95.85%)       1 (4.17%)

  1          43         42 (97.67%)       1 (2.33%)

  2          24         21 (87.50%)       3 (12.50%)

  3          60         44 (73.33%)      16 (26.67%)

  4          45         39 (86.67%)       6 (13.33%)

  5          47         20 (42.55%)      27 (57.45%)

  6          45         43 (95.56%)       2 (4.44%)

  7          58         45 (77.59%)      13 (22.41%)

  8          56         45 (80.36%)      11 (19.64%)

  9          53         42 (79.25%)      11 (20.75%)

Strategy

Part 1: Car pricing

Mostly know the price, but you can sniff out the fake. If you see a 5, there's a better than 50% chance it's a fake--avoid it unless you're certain it belongs. On the other hand, if, after the first digit is revealed, you see a 0, 1, 2, 4, and/or 6 remaining, there's a very good chance it or they will be in the car.

Part 2: Which cards to pick

Unfortunately, they don't reveal the cards that the contestant doesn't pick, so I don't have anything brilliant here. For example, the card that's been revealed to be the $2 card the most often is the top card of the second column...but that's been revealed to be the $2 card a whopping three times in 180 playings. No other spot has been shown to have the card more than twice. So you have nothing to lose by picking the top card of the second column, but don't bet your house on it. Otherwise, I would pick cards at the very top, very left, very bottom, or very right, as most contestants go for cards in the middle.

Part 2b: If you're daring

If you look closely, whenever the contestant picks an envelope, Drew quickly looks at the back of it. I believe there's a mark on the $2 envelope so that if the contestant picks it, Drew can put it last to maximize the drama. So if you're daring, you can try to look at the back of the envelope briefly as you pull the envelope out of its slot and put it back if you don't see a mark; IMHO, this wouldn't be cheating because you're not looking at the actual value. Of course, the staff might not agree, so do this at your own risk...

The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Plinko

Plinko

Rules

The contestant is given a Plinko chip for free. Four small prizes are then shown, each of which has a wrong price. The contestant must decide if the first digit in the wrong price is the first digit in the actual price or if the last digit in the wrong price is the last digit in the actual price. If they are correct, they get another Plinko chip. They then take their Plinko chips to the board and drop them one at a time. They win whatever money their chips land in.

Random fact

For the game's 30th anniversary, the show had an episode where they played Plinko 6 times. Buzzfeed wrote a behind the scenes article about it here:

https://www.buzzfeed.com/adambvary/inside-the-all-plinko-episode-of-the-price-is-right

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-47): 0-564 (0%)
• What it would be by random chance: 35/958579 (0.0037%)
  (That assumes the contestant drops every chip from the center slot.)

<voice from offstage> WHAT?!?!?!?!?!

Hey, I don't make the rules. According to the show's staff, a game is considered to be won if and only if its main announced prize is won. In Plinko's case, that means the full $50,000 must be won for the game to be won. 

Yeah, but...

But what?

Can we consider it to be a win if the contestant hits the center slot at least once? Please?

OK, fine. Here are the stats for that...

Win-loss record if a win means the center slot was hit at least once

• Actual (seasons 29-47): 257-307 (45.57%)
• What it would be by random chance: 1456/2799 (52.02%)
  (That assumes the contestant drops every chip from the center slot.)

Correct choice for the small prizes... (seasons 40-47)

Last digit of   % of time first   % of time last

 wrong price    digit was right   digit was right

      0               2.90             97.10

      1              94.20              5.80

      2              57.89             42.11

      3              71.79             28.21

      4              82.76             17.24

      5               7.03             92.97

      6              73.97             26.03

      7              50.77             49.23

      8              65.79             34.21

      9              18.67             81.33

Strategy

Part 1: Small Prizes

Simply put, if the last digit is 0, 5, or 9, your guess should be that the last digit is the correct one, unless you have strong reason to believe otherwise. If the last digit is 1, 3, 4, 6, or 8, your guess should be that the first digit is the correct one. If it's 2 or 7, you need to know the price. That said, to simplify this, if you want to think of it as "0, 5, or 9 means last, otherwise choose first," I won't object to that.

Part 2: Where to drop the chip from

Drop every chip from the center slot. I repeat, drop every chip from the center slot. One more time:

DROP EVERY CHIP FROM THE CENTER SLOT!!!!

Your expected winnings are highest if you drop the chip from the center slot. This makes sense--the chip is equally likely to bounce left or right. If you drop the chip from the center slot, you need an equal number of left and right bounces to get the $10,000. If you drop the chip from one slot left of the center slot, you need seven bounces to the right and five to the left to get the $10,000. Which do you think is more likely--six bounces to the right and six bounces to the left or seven bounces to the right and five to the left? Yup, the first one. One thing this means is that you should NOT correct for a previous bad bounce. In other words, if you drop your first chip from the center slot and it goes into the left $0, do NOT move one spot to the right for your next drop. You should drop every chip from the center slot no matter what the previous results were!

Let me back this up with some data from a simulation I created where I "released" 10 million chips over each slot. 

Where the chip       % of time center       Avg. winnings

was dropped from        slot was hit         of each chip

Left- or right-             3.21               $779.54

most slot   

Second slot from            5.67             $1,009.77

the left or right      

Third slot from            12.11             $1,606.17

the left or right     

Slot adjacent to           19.37             $2,269.45

the center slot    

Center slot                22.58*            $2,559.93

* The theoretical rate of the chip hitting $10,000 if you drop it from the center slot is 924/4096, or 22.56%. So my simulation gets pretty close to that rate.

The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Pick-A-Pair

Pick-A-Pair

Rules

A prize is shown as are six grocery items. The contestant picks two grocery items. If they have the same price, the contestant wins the prize. Otherwise, the contestant keeps one of the two grocery items they initially chose and try to find the item that matches its price. If successful, they win; if not, they lose.

Random fact

When this game first debuted, it used a mini-Ferris wheel to display the products. You can see a playing here from the 1980s nighttime show:

(Jump ahead to the 6:45 mark to see the Pick-A-Pair playing.)

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-47): 223-68 (76.63%)
• What it would be by random chance: 2/5 (40%)

Strategy

The easiest way to play this game is to pick either the two most expensive products or the two cheapest products, whichever is easier for you to deduce. But because they never reveal the prices of more than four items, and usually only reveal only two or three of the prices, I cannot draw any conclusions about which pairs are more or less likely to be correct.

The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Pick-A-Number

Pick-A-Number

Rules

A prize is shown as is the price for the prize; however, one digit is missing from the price. Three choices are shown for that missing digit. If the contestant picks the correct value for the missing digit, they win the prize.

Random fact

The missing digit has not been either of the last two digits of the prize since season 42. Thus, the statistics for this article will be mostly based on seasons 43-47.

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-47): 115-172 (40.07%)
• What it would be by random chance: 1/3 (33.33%)

Which digit was the correct digit to choose? (seasons 43-47)

Overall

• The lowest valued digit: 21 playings (18.75%)
• The middle valued digit: 57 playings (50.89%)
• The highest valued digit: 34 playings (30.36%)

When the thousands digit is missing

• The lowest valued digit: 15 playings (16.13%)
• The middle valued digit: 53 playings (56.99%)
• The highest valued digit: 25 playings (26.88%)

When the hundreds digit is missing

• The lowest valued digit: 6 playings (31.58%)
• The middle valued digit: 4 playings (21.05%)
• The highest valued digit: 9 playings (47.37%)

Strategy

A couple pieces of advice:

1. If the thousands digit is missing (meaning the first digit in a 4 digit prize or the second digit in a 5 digit prize), you should lean toward the middle number being correct. 
2. If the hundreds digit is missing, you should lean toward the lowest or highest digit. But note that's not based on a lot of playings so use that with caution.
3. This game has a variation on the "digits don't repeat except for the the first two" that cars usually follow. In this game, digits don't usually repeat except for the last two. Of course, the last two digits are given to you. This means that the missing digit won't usually be the same as the digit to its left or right. I say "usually" because it has happened 1-2 times per season since season 43 that other digits have repeated. But if you're unsure of the missing digit, there's a good chance it's not the same as the digit to its left or right.

The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Pay the Rent

Pay the Rent

Rules

6 grocery items are shown, as is a "house" with 4 floors. The bottom floor of the house has room for 1 item, the second and third floors have room for two items each, and the top floor has room for the last grocery item. The contestant must arrange the items so that each floor is worth more than the floor below it. The bottom floor is worth $1,000; the second floor is worth $5,000; the third floor is worth $10,000; the top floor is worth $100,000. For each floor the contestant has right, they win that amount of money. After each floor is revealed, the contestant can stop with the money or continue. If they continue and the next floor's worth is less than the last floor's worth, they lose everything.

Random fact

When they first debuted this game in season 39, they usually arranged it so there was only one possible solution. However, since season 43, there have been at least two possible solutions to every playing. Thus, most of my stats will be from season 43 onward.

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 39-47): 5-75 (6.25%)
• What it would be by random chance: N/180, where N is the number of solutions the game has. For example, if the setup has exactly two solutions, then the probability of winning by random chance would be 2/180 (1.11%).

The game had exactly how many solutions? (seasons 43-47)

• 1: 0 playings (0%)
• 2: 9 playings (23.08%)
• 3: 23 playings (58.97%)
• 4: 2 playings (5.13%)
• 5: 1 playing (2.56%)
• 6: 1 playing (2.56%)
• 7: 0 playings (0%)
• 8: 1 playing (2.56%)
• 9: 1 playings (2.56%)
• 10: 0 playings (0%)
• 11: 1 playings (2.56%)
• 12 or more: 0 playings (0%)

How often was each combination a correct solution? (seasons 43-47)

• (1) < (2) + (3) < (4) + (5) < (6): 2 playings (5.13%)
• (1) < (2) + (4) < (3) + (5) < (6): 3 playings (7.69%)
• (1) < (2) + (5) < (3) + (4) < (6): 3 playings (7.69%)
• (1) < (3) + (4) < (2) + (5) < (6): 3 playings (7.69%)
• (2) < (1) + (3) < (4) + (5) < (6): 2 playings (5.13%)
• (2) < (1) + (4) < (3) + (5) < (6): 3 playings (7.69%)
• (2) < (1) + (5) < (3) + (4) < (6): 20 playings (51.28%)
• (2) < (3) + (4) < (1) + (5) < (6): 9 playings (23.08%)
• (3) < (1) + (2) < (4) + (5) < (6): 1 playing (2.56%)
• (3) < (1) + (4) < (2) + (5) < (6): 7 playings (17.95%)
• (3) < (1) + (5) < (2) + (4) < (6): 13 playings (33.33%)
• (3) < (2) + (4) < (1) + (5) < (6): 25 playings (64.10%)
• (4) < (1) + (3) < (2) + (5) < (6): 2 playings (5.13%)
• (4) < (1) + (5) < (2) + (3) < (6): 4 playings (10.26%)
• (4) < (2) + (3) < (1) + (5) < (6): 32 playings (82.05%)
• (5) < (1) + (3) < (2) + (4) < (6): 1 playing (2.56%)
• (5) < (1) + (4) < (2) + (3) < (6): 2 playings (5.13%)
• (5) < (2) + (3) < (1) + (4) < (6): 2 playings (5.13%)

(1) means the cheapest item, (2) means the second cheapest item, and so forth. The percentages add up to over 100 because there are multiple solutions that can win the game.

Strategy

Step 1: Decide how much you want to play for

Your strategy changes based on whether you'll be happy with the $10,000 or go for the whole $100,000.  Given the unlikelihood of winning $100,000*, I personally would go for the $10,000, but it's entirely up to you. 

*Exception: if you're playing this during a season opening show or Big Money Week, the producers may have set this up to be much easier than usual. Use your judgement to decide if they're doing that or not.

Step 2a: If you're playing for $10,000

If you're playing for $10,000, just put the items from cheapest to most expensive. You'll have wiggle room to make mistakes, and if there's an item you're not sure of at all, just wait until the end and put it in the attic. Even just having an idea of which items are cheaper and which are more expensive should result in an easy $10,000. Just remember to bail out after you reach the $10,000 mark.

Step 2b: If you're playing for $100,000

If you're going for the full $100,000, then do not, I repeat, do NOT, I repeat DO NOT place the cheapest item in the mailbox (the bottom floor). That's a guaranteed loss unless the producers are being really really nice. Instead, the correct way to play this game for $100,000 is to solve this game mentally before you give Drew any selections. You should think top to bottom, not bottom to top. The most expensive item must be placed in the attic. Then you're looking for two products whose total is just below that; mentally place those in the third floor. Then look for two items whose total is just below that; mentally place those in the second floor. Whatever's left must go in the mailbox. That's the way you have to do it--if you just place items on each floor without thinking about the placements on the other floors, you're going to have to get really lucky to win the full $100,000.

All that said, do note there is one combination that is quite frequently correct: (4) < (2) + (3) < (1) + (5) < (6) wins over 82% of the time. If you know the prices of each of the items but can't do the mental arithmetic to figure what goes where, follow that particular pattern.

The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Pathfinder

Pathfinder

Rules

A car is shown. The contestant is placed in the middle of a 5x5 grid of numbers, and they are standing on top of the first number of the price of the car. The next number is non-diagonally adjacent to them; they must guess the next digit of the price of the car. If they are right, they move to the correct square and must guess the next digit from the non-diagonally adjacent numbers to that digit; the path cannot return to an already-used digit. If they are wrong, they must guess the price of one of three small prizes to get another chance. Each small prize has two possible prices to choose between. If the contestant correctly guesses the price of the prize, they get another chance. The game continues until the contestant has found the price of the car or they run out of extra chances.

Random fact

For the second digit of the car, the contestant will always have four choices; for the third digit of the car, the contestant will always have three choices; for the fourth digit of the car, the contestant could have two or three choices; for the last digit of the car, the contestant will always have two choices. I will call the case with three choices for the fourth digit the "harder" path and the case with two choices for the fourth digit the "easier" path. Examples of each:

Harder path    Easier path

 o o o o o      o o o o o

 o o o o o      o o o o o

 o o x o o      o o x o o

 o o x x o      o o x o o

 o o o x x      o o x x x

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-46): 54-170 (24.11%)
• By random chance:
• If the correct path is a "harder" path: 43/288 (14.93%)
• If the correct path is an "easier" path: 13/64 (20.31%)

Car pricing stats

Number of times each type of path was used (seasons 40-46)

• Easier path: 14 playings (14.74%) [not more than twice in a season since season 42]
• Harder path: 81 playings (85.26%)

For the second digit, the correct option was...(seasons 40-46)

• Largest possible digit: 27 playings (28.42%)
• 2nd largest possible digit: 16 playings (16.84%)
• 2nd smallest possible digit: 17 playings (17.89%)
• Smallest possible digit: 34 playings (35.79%)
• Unknown because the author missed one and can't find what he missed: 1 playing (1.05%)

• Directly in front of the contestant: 14 playings (14.74%)
• Directly to the left of the contestant: 25 playings (26.32%)
• Directly to the right of the contestant: 26 playings (27.37%)
• Directly behind the contestant: 30 playings (31.58%)

Small prize stats

The correct choice was...(seasons 40-46)

• The price on the left (the smaller price): 146 prizes (54.28%)
• The price on the right (the larger price): 123 prizes (45.72%)

If one price ended in 0, 5, or 9, and the other didn't, the correct one was...(seasons 40-46)

• The price that ended in 0, 5, or 9: 24 prizes (51.06%)
• The price that didn't: 23 prizes (48.94%)

Strategy

Car pricing

• Second digit: The second digit is usually the lowest or the highest option ("pick the endpoints") and is rarely the number in front of you ("that'd be too easy.")
• Third digit: Usually, the third digit is NOT on the edge of the board. That would result in an "easier" path being correct instead of the hard path.
• Fourth digit: I don't have anything for this one. Sorry :(.
• Last digit: As is not unusual in car games, the last digit in Pathfinder is rarely 0, 5, or 9. Since season 42, the last digit hasn't been 0, 5, or 9 more than 4 times in a season and there have been a couple of seasons where there were no cars with any of those last three digits.

Small prizes

Know the prices. There are no trends here that I could find--in particular, they don't try to trap you with a fake price that ends in 0, 5, or 9.

The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Pass the Buck

Pass the Buck

Rules

A car is shown as is a board with 6 numbers. Behind one of those numbers is a picture of a car, one of them has $1,000, one has $3,000, and one has $5,000, and two say "lose everything". The contestant has one pick for free. A pair of grocery items is shown with prices; one of the prices is its correct price, and one is $1 below its item's correct price. If the contestant guesses which price is $1 below the actual price of the grocery item, they get an extra pick. They are then shown another pair of items, which the same choice to make. Thus, the contestant starts with one pick but can have a total of three. Then they start picking numbers off the board. They keep whatever is behind the numbers they choose, and they accumulate the winnings; for example, if they pick $1,000 and then $3,000, they get a total of $4,000. However, if they choose "lose everything," they lose everything they've won up to that point. Thus, they are allowed to bailout after any pick if they so desire. They win whatever prizes they've accumulated at the end of the game.

Random fact

When this game first debuted, there were 8 numbers and 3 pairs of grocery items; no picks were given for free. You can see a playing of it here:

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 30-46): 63-167 (27.39%)
• What it would be by random chance: 1/3 (33.33%)
  (Note: that assumes that a contestant bails out if and only if they win the car.)

The correct item to pass the buck to was...(seasons 40-46)

• On the left: 57 playings (43.85%)
• On the right: 73 playings (57.15%)

The car was behind...(seasons 40-46)

• #1: 20 playings (30.77%)
• #2: 6 playings (9.23%)
• #3: 4 playings (6.15%)
• #4: 2 playings (3.08%)
• #5: 8 playings (12.31%)
• #6: 25 playings (38.46%)

Strategy

Part 1: Grocery Pricing

Know the price. There's a slight preference toward pushing the buck toward the right, but not enough to suggest that as a strategy unless you're clueless about the price.

Part 2: Which numbers to pick

Pick the endpoints! Pick #6, then #1, and then #5. Just between #6 and #1, you have an over 69% chance of winning the car.

Should you bail out? Rarely. You should ONLY bail out under the following circumstances:

          # picks  # lose everythings  Car is worth less

You have    left   left on the board    than this to you

$4,000       1            2                $3,000

$5,000       1            1                $1,000

$5,000       1            2                $4,000

$5,000       2            2                $1,250

$6,000       1            2                $9,000

$8,000       1            2               $15,000

The right-most column indicates the minimum value of the car to you to keep playing under the given circumstances. For example, if you win $8,000 with your first two picks, you should only take a third pick if the car is worth $15,000 to you. Any combination not shown is a combination where you should always keep playing; in particular, if you have $3,000 or less, you should always continue as the just the cash on the board is worth playing for.