The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Secret X

Secret X

Rules

A main prize is shown and a 3x3 tic-tac-toe grid is revealed. One of the squares in the middle column has an "X" in it, but the contestant does not know which one. The contestant gets one X for free and can win two more by guessing prices of small prizes. After the contestant places their X's, the location of the secret X in the middle column is revealed. If the contestant has three X's in a row, including the secret X, they win the main prize.

Random fact

While this is rarely stated by Bob or Drew, the three X's in a row to win the game must include the secret X. The contestant cannot win by placing three X's all in the left-most column or three X's all in the right-most column.

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-47): 132-120 (52.38%)
• What it would be by random chance: 1/3 (33.33%) (This assumes the contestant doesn't do anything stupid, like put an X in the center row or place their first two X's in the same column.)

The correct guess for the small prize was...(seasons 40-47)

• The more expensive price: 70 prizes (35.71%)
• The cheaper price: 126 prizes (64.29%)

The secret X was in which square? (seasons 40-47)

• Top square: 38 playings (38.78%)
• Middle square: 51 playings (52.04%)
• Bottom square: 9 playings (9.18%)

Strategy

Part 1: Small prize pricing

As you can see, the cheaper price is right almost 2/3 of the time, so if you're not sure, go for that one.

Part 2: Where to place the X's

Part 2a: If not playing for a car

As you can see, the producers like putting the secret X in the middle and really don't like putting it at the bottom. So place the X's in this order: top left, bottom right, and top right. Of course, any ordering where you first cover the middle square, then cover the top square will work. Just whatever you do, don't place an X in the middle row--believe it or not, that has happened.

Part 2b: If playing for a car
As Flerbert419 at golden-road.net pointed out, of those 9 playings where the X was at the bottom, 6 came when the game was played for a car. In fact, of the 13 playings for a car from season 40-47, the X was at the top twice, in middle 5 times, and at the bottom 6 times. So if you're playing for a car, you should cover the bottom square first, then the middle. Start with the lower left, then the lower right, then either of the top corners.