The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Shell Game

Shell Game

Rules

A prize is shown. Then four shells are shown, one of which hides a ball. Four small prizes are then shown, each with an incorrect price; the contestant must decide if the actual price of each item is higher or lower than the indicated price. For each item they get correct, they get to choose one of the shells; at the end of the game, if the ball is under one of the shells the contestant chose, they win. As a bonus, if they get all four correct, in addition to winning the main prize, they get to pick which shell they think the ball is under. If they are correct about that, they win a cash bonus equal to the value of the main prize.

Random fact

This game was the host to one of the most infamous (and one of the funniest) moments of cheating on the show:

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-47): 67-28 (70.53%)
• What it would be by random chance: 1/2 (50%)

The correct choice to make for each small prize was...(seasons 40-47)

• Higher: 99 prizes (56.25%)
• Lower: 77 prizes (43.75%)

How often was each combination of highers and lowers correct? (seasons 40-47)

• 4 Higher: 0 playings (0%)
• 3 Higher, 1 Lower: 15 playings (34.09%)
• 2 Higher, 2 Lower: 23 playings (52.27%)
• 1 Higher, 3 Lower: 6 playings (13.64%)
• 4 Lower: 0 playings (0%)

The ball was under which shell? (seasons 40-47)

• Shell #1 (the left-most shell): 8 playings (18.18%)
• Shell #2: 12 playings (27.27%)
• Shell #3: 14 playings (31.82%)
• Shell #4 (the right-most shell): 10 playings (22.73%)

Strategy

Part 1: Small Prizes

Mostly know the prices, though note it's never been the case that all four correct answers were higher nor were all four correct answers ever all lower (at least since season 39.) Also, there's a slight edge toward "higher," so if you're clueless, that can be your guess.

Part 2: Where to place the chips

This game inverts "pick the endpoints"--since season 40, the ball is more often in the center than at one of the edges. It's not a strong trend though, and given the fact that Drew (lightly) shuffles the shells before the game begins, the producers can't fully control where the ball is. So if you want to pick your lucky shells, go right ahead.