The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: One Away

One Away

Rules

A car is shown as is a 5 digit price. None of those numbers is correct; each digit is exactly one away from the correct value of that digit in the car's price. The contestant guesses the price of the car. If they are correct, they win the car; if they are wrong, they are told how many digits they had correct and, as long as they got at least one digit right, they get one more chance to guess the price of the car. If they get it right the second time, they win; otherwise, they lose.

Random fact

In one of the earliest playings of this game, Bob really wanted to hear a little horn during the part of the game the price is supposed to revealed by sliding the bar at the bottom of the prop. See how the staff handles it here:

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-46): 149-227 (39.63%)
• What it would be by random chance: 5/32 (15.63%)
• What it would be if you know the first digit but choose everything else by random chance: 5/16 (31.25%)

Was the correct choice higher or lower? (seasons 40-46)

   Digit 1      Digit 2      Digit 3      Digit 4      Digit 5

#  L     H      L     H      L     H      L     H      L     H

1 N/A   N/A   61.8% 38.2%  33.3% 66.7%    0%   100%  41.7% 58.3%

2 100%   0%   94.1%  5.9%   80%   20%   66.7% 33.3%   75%   25%

3 98.6% 1.4%   75%   25%   72.7% 27.3%  62.5% 37.5%   50%   50%

4 N/A   N/A   85.7% 14.3%  73.9% 26.1%   68%   32%   91.7%  8.3%

5 N/A   N/A    50%   50%   30.8% 69.2%  45.8% 54.2%   75%   25%

6 0%    100%  42.9% 57.1%  35.7% 64.3%  69.2% 30.8%  35.7% 64.3% 

7 N/A   N/A   28.6% 71.4%   15%   85%   37.5% 62.5%  21.7% 78.3%

8 N/A   N/A   22.9% 77.1%  33.3% 66.7%   50%   50%   63.6% 36.4%

(The left most column above refers to the wrong digit shown at the beginning of the game. N/A means that digit was never an option--in other words, the wrong number for the first digit has never been 1, 4, 5, 7, or 8.)

How often was each combination of higher and lower correct? (seasons 40-46)

• 5 Lower: 0 playings (0%)
• 4 Lower, 1 Higher: 5 playings (3.8%)
• 3 Lower, 2 Higher: 26 playings (19.5%)
• 2 Lower, 3 Higher: 57 playings (42.9%)
• 1 Lower, 4 Higher: 45 playings (33.8%)
• 5 Higher: 0 playings (0%)

 Strategy

There's no over-arching strategy here, but here are some tips to keep in mind:

1. Don't forget the "no digits repeat except the first two" rule--this rule has been true in every playing of this game in since the middle of season 40.
2. In general, if you're not sure, lean toward "higher" instead of "lower." You can see that in the last table above--the 1 lower/4 higher combination is right almost twice as often as the 3 lower/2 higher combination. But of course make sure at least one of your guesses is lower.
3. If the second or third wrong digit is a 2, say lower. 94.1% of the time, that's been the correct guess for the second digit, and it's been right 80% of the time for the third digit.
4. The fourth digit of the car is never 0. So if you see a 1 there, say higher.
5. If the last digit is a 4, say lower. That's correct 91.7% of the time. The producers are trying to trap you into thinking the last digit is a 5.
6. If the last digit is a 6, it's a good bet to be higher, but not quite as automatic as saying lower when the last digit is 4. But guessing higher still avoids the trap of you thinking the last digit is 5 that the producers want you to fall for.