Let 'em Roll
Rules
A car is shown and 5 dice are given to the contestant; each die has 3 sides with a picture of a car, one side with $500, one side with $1,000, and one side with $1,500. The contestant is given one roll for free. Three grocery items are then shown. The contestant must decide whether the second item is higher priced or lower priced than the first item; if they are correct, they get an extra roll. They then must decide if the third item is higher priced or lower priced than the second item; if they are correct, they get an extra roll. The contestant then rolls the dice. After each roll, if they have 5 cars, they win the car. Otherwise, if they have a roll remaining, they can keep the cash showing or keep the dice that say "car" off to the side and roll only the dice that cash amounts on them. After their last roll, they win whatever cash is showing or the car if all five dice show "car" on them.
Random fact
Believe it or not, this game has been won in one roll. See it here:
Win-loss record
- Actual (seasons 29-46): 99-128 (43.61%)
(Note it only counts as a win if the contestant won the car. Early cash bailouts count as losses.) - What it would be by random chance: 33383/131072 (25.47%)
Was the correct choice higher or lower? (seasons 40-46)
First choice
- Higher: 54 playings (71.05%)
- Lower: 22 playings (28.95%)
- Higher: 43 playings (56.58%)
- Lower: 33 playings (43.42%)
- Higher: 77 times (63.82%)
- Lower: 55 times (36.18%)
Were the two choices the same or different? (seasons 40-46)
- The same (both higher or both lower): 51 playings (67.11%)
- Different (one higher and one lower): 25 playings (33.89%)
Strategy
Part 1: Pricing. There's nothing foolproof here, so knowing the prices is best. But note that higher is correct more often than lower, especially for the first choice. Also note that more than 2/3 of the time, the second choice is the same as the first choice. Those facts can help you.
Part 2: Should you stay or should you roll on? Like I talked about in Gas Money, you need to decide what the value of the car is to you. Are you going to sell it? Then the value is whatever you can sell it for? Are you going to turn it down? Then the value is $0. Are you going to keep it? Then the value is whatever the announced value is. Once you have that, here are the tables that tell you whether you should keep playing or not. The amount shown in each spot is the minimum value of the car that it should be for you to take another roll, rounded to the nearest dollar. N/A means that combination is not possible.
If you have two rolls left...
Number of dice left
Cash 1 2 3 4 5
$500 $333 N/A N/A N/A N/A
$1000 $1000 $889 N/A N/A N/A
$1500 $1667 $1778 $1778 N/A N/A
$2000 N/A $2667 $2963 $3160 N/A
$2500 N/A $3556 $4148 $4741 $5267
$3000 N/A $4444 $5333 $6321 $7374
$3500 N/A N/A $6519 $7901 $9481
$4000 N/A N/A $7703 $9481 $11588
$4500 N/A N/A $8889 $11062 $13695
$5000 N/A N/A N/A $12642 $15802
$5500 N/A N/A N/A $14222 $17909
$6000 N/A N/A N/A $15802 $20016
$6500 N/A N/A N/A N/A $22123
$7000 N/A N/A N/A N/A $24230
$7500 N/A N/A N/A N/A $26337
If you have one roll left...
Number of dice left
Cash 1 2 3 4 5
$500 $0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
$1000 $1000 $0 N/A N/A N/A
$1500 $2000 $2000 $0 N/A N/A
$2000 N/A $4000 $4000 $0 N/A
$2500 N/A $6000 $8000 $8000 $0
$3000 N/A $8000 $12000 $16000 $16000
$3500 N/A N/A $16000 $24000 $32000
$4000 N/A N/A $20000 $32000 $48000
$4500 N/A N/A $24000 $40000 $64000
$5000 N/A N/A N/A $48000 $80000
$5500 N/A N/A N/A $56000 $96000
$6000 N/A N/A N/A $64000 $112000
$6500 N/A N/A N/A N/A $128000
$7000 N/A N/A N/A N/A $144000
$7500 N/A N/A N/A N/A $160000
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