Saturday, July 6, 2019

The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Check Game

Check Game

CAUTION: The following guide was written for seasons 43-47, when the range was $7,000 to $8,000. The range was upped to $8,000 to $9,000 in season 48, so it remains to be seen how the strategy of this game will play out. In other words, you should use this article very cautiously or possibly ignore it entirely, with one exception: all prizes will still be at least $5,000, so don't write the check for more than $3,000.

Rules
A prize is shown as is a blank check. The contestant must write an amount of money on the check so that the amount of the check plus the price of the prize totals between $7,000 and $8,000, inclusive. (EDIT: this was upped to $8,000 to $9,000 in season 48.) If they do, they win the prize and cash in the amount of the check.

Random fact
For whatever reason, this game attracts way more than its fair share of clueless contestants. Here's one example:


Win-loss record (seasons 29-46): 60-94 (38.96%)

Number of prizes that cost...(seasons 43-47)
  • Between $5,000 and $5,999, inclusive: 35 (74.47%)
  • Between $6,000 and $6,999, inclusive: 12 (25.53%)
  • Less than $5,000 or more than $6,999: 0 (0%)
If you wrote the check for X, how often would you have won? (seasons 43-47)
  • $400 or below: 0 playings (0%)
  • $500: 1 playing (2.13%)
  • $600: 2 playings (4.26%)
  • $700: 3 playings (6.38%)
  • $800: 5 playings (10.64%)
  • $900: 7 playings (14.89%)
  • $1,000: 12 playings (25.53%)
  • $1,100: 16 playings (34.04%)
  • $1,200: 16 playings (34.04%)
  • $1,300: 22 playings (46.81%)
  • $1,400: 24 playings (51.06%)
  • $1,500: 28 playings (59.57%)
  • $1,600: 32 playings (68.09%)
  • $1,700: 33 playings (70.21%)
  • $1,800: 34 playings (72.34%)
  • $1,900: 36 playings (76.60%)
  • $2,000: 35 playings (74.47%)
  • $2,100: 31 playings (65.96%)
  • $2,200: 31 playings (65.96%)
  • $2,300: 26 playings (55.32%)
  • $2,400: 23 playings (48.94%)
  • $2,500: 18 playings (38.30%)
  • $2,600: 13 playings (27.66%)
  • $2,700: 11 playings (23.40%)
  • $2,800: 8 playings (17.02%)
  • $2,900: 4 playings (8.51%)
  • $3,000 or more: 0 playings (0%)
Strategy
Don't write the check for too much. The winning range was upped to $7,000 to $8,000 in season 37. Since then, including season 47, the record of this game has been 25-45 (31.25%). Of those 45 losses, 8 were by writing the check for too little and 37 of those losses were by writing the check for too much. Since the prizes they use in this game are now all between $5,000 and $6,999, there are only three check values you need to remember:
  • Write the check for $1,000 if you think the first digit of the prize is 6.
  • Write the check for $2,000 if you think the first digit of the prize is 5.
  • If you're not sure, split the difference and write the check for $1,500.
To be clear: under no circumstance should you write the check for more than $2,000. Yes, sometimes amounts more than $2,000 will win the prize. However, in all those cases, due to the fact that no prize is less than $5,000, a check for $2,000 will also win the prize, and you lessen the risk of going over by capping your check at $2,000. And don't be afraid to write it for $1,000--with each passing season, the number of $6,000 prizes is getting closer and closer to the number of $5,000 prizes.

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