The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Golden Road

Golden Road

Rules 

Three prizes are shown as is a grocery item. The contestant must pick which of the two digits in the price of the grocery item is the hundreds digit in the first prize. If they are wrong, they leave with nothing. If they are correct, they win that prize and continue. They then must pick which of the three digits in the price of the first prize is the hundreds digit of the second prize. If they are wrong, they keep the first prize but the game ends; if they are correct, they win the second prize and continue on. They must finally pick which of the digits of the price of the second prize is the hundreds digit of the third prize. If they are correct, they win all three prizes; if they are wrong, they keep the first two prizes.

Random Fact

This is the first of the "big three" games on the show (the other two being 3 Strikes and Triple Play.) Those games are called the big three because they routinely offer the most expensive prize packages on the game. Here's one example of Golden Road being played for a Corvette:

Win-loss record

• Seasons 29-46: 16-76 (17.39%)
• What it would be by random chance: 1/24 (4.17%)

First prize stats (seasons 40-46)

• Cheaper price was correct: 3 playings (12%)
• More expensive price was correct: 22 playings (88%)

Second prize stats (seasons 40-46)

(Note: these only include playings where the contestant got the first prize right.)

• Cheapest price was correct: 11 playings (52.38%)
• Middle price was correct: 8 playings (38.10%)
• Most expensive price was correct: 2 playings (9.52%)
• Same number was correct for the first and second prizes: 2 playings (9.52%)

Last prize stats (seasons 40-46)

(Note: these only include playings the contestant got the first two prizes right.)

• Cheapest price was correct: 8 playings (57.14%)
• Second cheapest price was correct: 2 playings (14.29%)
• Second most expensive price was correct: 2 playings (14.29%)
• Most expensive price was correct: 2 playings (14.29%)
• The digit that was correct for the last prize was also correct for a previous prize: 6 playings (42.86%)

Strategy

I will break down the strategy by prize. One caution: this game is only played 3-4 times a year, so the sample size for these statistics is quite small. Thus, it's hard to tell if these are really patterns or just quirks of what happens when you apply random chance to a small sample size.

But one strategy I can guarantee: Digits NEVER repeat in the price of the first or second prize (if they did, this would cause you to have one less choice for the second or third prize). They can repeat in the price of the final prize.

1. First prize: Pick the more expensive price! The less expensive price hasn't been right since season 44. There also hasn't been a prize for less than $500 in this game since season 38, so if one of the numbers is less than 5, you really know it's going to be the larger number. But unless you have a really good reason to believe the smaller number is correct or the larger number is the same as one of the other digits in the price, go for the larger number.
2. Second prize: The key strategy here is to not guess the same digit that was correct for the first prize. It's rare when it's also correct for the second prize; in fact, it hasn't been correct since 42. Further, don't guess the largest digit--as you can see in the stats, it's rare for that to be correct. And finally, don't forget, no two digits in the price of the second prize will repeat. Hopefully, this narrows it down to one choice, but if it doesn't, then you need to know the price.
3. Final prize: Things get much trickier here. While digits can repeat in the price in the last price, the 3rd to last digit (the one you're looking for), is never the same as the digit before or after it. For example, if the price is $189,_65 (an actual price from season 43), the digit in the blank won't be 9 or 6. However, the 3rd to last digit can be the same as a digit it's not right next to, so in that example, it could have been a 5--and in fact, it was. After applying that rule, if you're not sure, pick the lowest number--it's right more than half the time. Again, note the sample size is small, so my confidence isn't great that this is a pattern and not just a quirk of random chance. But it's better than absolutely nothing.