The Ultimate Price is Right Strategy Guide: Cover Up

Cover Up

Rules

A car is shown. Then a board is shown with five columns. The first column has two numbers in it, the second column has three numbers in it, the third column has four numbers in it, the fourth column has five numbers in it, and the last column has six numbers in it. The contestant must take one number from each column to create the price of the car. Drew checks if that price is right. If it's not, he checks if any number is right. If at least one number is right, the game continues. The contestant then covers up the wrong number(s) with other choices from its/their respective column(s). If that price is right, the contestant wins. If it's not, then at least one of the numbers covered up in that round must be right to continue. The game continues until the car is won or there's a round where the contestant doesn't have any new numbers right.

Random fact

When Drew started as host, he constantly talked about how the initial numbers shown were pointless and might as well be blank. The show got him back for that:

Win-loss record

• Actual (seasons 29-46):145-292 (33.18%)
• What it would be by random chance: 77/240 (32.08%)

<voice from offstage> Hang on a second. That can't be right! Most contestants know at least the first digit, if not the second digit, of the car's price. How are they barely doing better than random chance? 

I'll tell you soon. Can we get back to this now? Fine, though my mind will be too occupied thinking about this to pay attention to anything you say before you answer.

Thank you, and too bad.

Correct digit by location (seasons 41-46)

                             3.01%

                     24.06% 22.56%

              21.05% 19.55% 23.31%

       40.60% 27.82% 17.29% 15.79%

41.35% 28.57% 27.07% 18.05% 20.30%

58.65% 30.83% 24.06% 21.05% 15.04%

C      O      V      E      R

Unwritten rule: The number at the top of the last column is almost never correct because if the contestant is shorter than about 6 feet tall, they can't easily reach it. The producers have broken that rule on rare occasions, but not since season 43. And no, this isn't why contestants are doing just barely better than random chance.

Strategy

Hey! Offstage voice! I'm ready to tell you why people are so bad at this game. Are you paying attention now? Yes? Good. There's a strategy to this game that loyal viewers call the Cover Up strategy, and it's simply this: get the first or second number WRONG on purpose on your first guess. Why? Because you can then get it right on your second turn and guarantee at least a third turn. But if you get the first two numbers right on the first turn, it makes your second turn that much harder. I've also heard strategies like "get the first two numbers wrong on purpose" so that you can get the first number right on the second turn and the third number right on the third turn. It turns out that doesn't work as well as the get the first number right on the first turn, second number right on the second turn strategy. Here are some numbers to show this point...

                          Chance of winning   Chance of winning

Strategy                 w/o unwritten rule   w/ unwritten rule  

Complete randomness            32.08%              38.50%

Get the first two digits       21.67%              26.00%

right on the first turn

Get the first digit right                     

on turn 1 and the second       40.83%              49.00%

digit right on turn 2

Get the first digit right      

on turn 2 and the second       34.17%              41.00%

digit right on turn 3

(The above table assumes digits 3-5 are always chosen randomly. The last column assumes the top number of the last column is incorrect and is never chosen by the contestant.)

As you can see, getting the first two digits right on the first turn is the worst thing you can do, and that's why the win percent of this game is so low. So don't be afraid to intentionally get the second number wrong on the first turn, as it almost doubles your chances of winning. In fact, if you don't follow that strategy, be afraid for my TV when I throw something at it in frustration of yet another contestant playing this game seriously sub-optimally. Instead, make me and my fellow TPiR geeks proud--get that second number wrong on purpose on the first try!

As for digits 3-5:

• Don't forget the repeated digits rule--other than the first two digits, no two consecutive digits will be the same.
• For whatever reason, they like making the 4th digit a 1 a little more frequently than you would expect by random chance. It's not hugely over, but if you see a 1 as an option for the 4th digit, it's worth a try.
• Cars in this game rarely end in 0 or 5 (EDIT: or 9--see below). Since season 43, there's never been more than 3 playings of this game in a season where the car ended in a 0 or a 5 (or 9). EDIT: Thanks to RatRace10 at golden-road.net for also pointing out the price rarely ends in 9. From seasons 40-47, there were a total of 4 cars that ended in a 0, 9 that ended in a 5, and 4 that ended in a 9.